Intelligence Squared

Fiona Hill: The World in 2026 (Part Two)

March 9, 2026

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  • The UK's defense posture must shift from an expeditionary focus to one prioritizing homeland vulnerability against asymmetric threats like drone attacks and infrastructure sabotage, as highlighted in the Strategic Defence Review. 
  • The US is perceived as an increasingly unreliable conventional military ally, forcing European nations, particularly those bordering Russia, to seriously rethink and increase their own defense spending and security coordination. 
  • Ordinary Russians are aware of the war's high cost (especially casualties), but political pressure on Putin to end the conflict is currently low because many benefit economically from the war effort or fear the consequences of capitulation. 

Segments

Europe’s Role Post-Trump
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(00:01:46)
  • Key Takeaway: The formidable fighting capability of Ukrainians is not asking for foreign troops but requires sustained military, moral, and political support to prevent being sold out.
  • Summary: Putin expected a swift takeover of Ukraine, similar to historical Soviet actions, but the strong Ukrainian resistance turned it into a full-scale war. Ukrainians are the most formidable fighting force in Europe currently, demonstrating phenomenal innovation in warfare, blending trench warfare with 21st-century technology like drones. They require long-term support for rebuilding and weaponry, not direct combat assistance.
UK Defense Reassessment
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(00:04:31)
  • Key Takeaway: The UK’s Strategic Defence Review emphasized hardening critical national infrastructure against hybrid threats, recognizing homeland vulnerability from sabotage like pipeline attacks.
  • Summary: The UK historically prepared for expeditionary wars alongside the US, but the war in Ukraine forced a reassessment toward homeland defense against non-conventional attacks. Real risks include drone attacks and sabotage targeting infrastructure, such as the pipeline bringing 70% of gas imports from Norway. A national conversation is needed to foster a mindset prepared for the worst-case scenario, as seen in recent sabotage incidents across Europe.
US Reliability and NATO
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(00:07:54)
  • Key Takeaway: The US commitment to NATO Article 5 is now largely restricted to strategic nuclear terms, as the expectation that the US would perpetually fund European security has ended.
  • Summary: The US has signaled for decades, even before Trump, that European NATO members must increase defense spending, a message Trump has delivered more bluntly. The mistake was assuming the US would indefinitely cover security costs, a dynamic that should have been renegotiated around 2010 with the Lisbon Treaty. Many European nations, especially those bordering Russia, are seriously increasing spending, while others lag behind.
European Defense Coordination
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(00:11:08)
  • Key Takeaway: While Southern European nations may be slow, Northern and Eastern European NATO members, alongside Canada, are seriously rethinking security cooperation outside of sole US reliance.
  • Summary: Countries like Poland are spending nearly 5% of GDP on defense due to proximity to the threat, and the UK’s Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) coordinates with non-NATO members like Sweden and Finland. Canada is also re-engaging with European NATO partners following concerns over US reliability. Nations like Germany, Switzerland, Norway, and Sweden see opportunities in ramping up defense manufacturing capabilities.
Advice for UK Prime Minister
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(00:13:39)
  • Key Takeaway: The incoming Prime Minister must act boldly and quickly on defense strategy, engage the public outside of London, and avoid pandering to Donald Trump.
  • Summary: The Strategic Defence Review was delayed by financing and political concerns, necessitating immediate, bold action to meet the current security moment. The public is better informed than politicians assume, understanding defense spending as insurance, and leaders must engage them outside of London. When dealing with Trump, the strategy should be to manage the relationship publicly while aggressively pursuing contingency plans (Plan B, C, D, E).
Russian Threat Perception Poll
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(00:18:46)
  • Key Takeaway: An overwhelming 94% of the audience polled believes Russia poses a threat, primarily through covert or hybrid attacks rather than direct conventional invasion.
  • Summary: The audience poll showed 39% viewed Russia as a direct threat, while 55% saw the threat coming mainly through hybrid means, confirming the focus on sabotage and disinformation. This aligns with the view that Russia, though overstretched, will increase hybrid operations, evidenced by past poisoning incidents in London. The war’s continuation is driven by Putin’s determination, as domestic pressure is not yet sufficient to force an end.
Future of the United States
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(00:20:51)
  • Key Takeaway: The US may be moving toward a ‘cantonized’ or looser federal structure, driven by states acting independently due to perceived erosion of central government authority.
  • Summary: Evidence suggests US states are beginning to act independently, with state delegations seeking foreign representation in Switzerland for the first time. This reflects a long-standing Federalist desire for decentralized power, accelerated by federal actions like tariffs under Trump. While secession is unlikely, the erosion of central government power makes a looser, more fractured United States increasingly probable.
Civic Education and Media Literacy
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(00:25:57)
  • Key Takeaway: Improving civic education and media literacy starting at age 13 is critical for young people to engage meaningfully with politics and resist manipulation.
  • Summary: Teachers are beginning to implement classroom discussions on citizenship starting around age 13, recognizing that engagement cannot wait until later years. Media literacy is essential not only for youth but also for older individuals susceptible to online manipulation and extreme theories. Engaging local civic organizations and bringing political realities outside of London are necessary steps for better public understanding.