Intelligence Squared

How Will the US Fight China? With Franz-Stefan Gady

October 11, 2025

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  • The US military's preferred approach to a conflict with China relies heavily on achieving information superiority through systems warfare, which risks accelerating vertical escalation toward nuclear conflict if that superiority is not attained. 
  • In a US-China conflict, the initial clash across cyber and space domains is crucial, but the character of warfare across all domains is expected to be highly attritional, leading to significant losses of hardware and manpower for both sides. 
  • Franz-Stefan Gady suggests the US should shift its focus from deep battle strikes to concentrating on the close fight in the Taiwan Strait, using assets like smart mines and UUVs to turn the area into a 'hellscape' for the People's Liberation Army to avoid deep strikes that might compromise China's nuclear deterrent. 

Segments

Book Impetus and Research Approach
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(00:04:10)
  • Key Takeaway: US military planning is overwhelmingly preoccupied with a potential conflict over Taiwan.
  • Summary: The book’s impetus stemmed from realizing that all US service branches heavily focus their future warfare concepts on a potential conflict with China over Taiwan. The analysis uses a domain-based approach covering cyber, space, air, sea, land, focusing on capabilities, structure, and doctrine.
Systems Warfare and Information Dominance
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(00:14:22)
  • Key Takeaway: US systems warfare aims to map the adversary’s system to target ‘knots’ or centers of gravity for rapid, decisive victory.
  • Summary: Systems warfare assumes the US is technologically superior and seeks to identify and paralyze adversary command structures rather than destroying entire forces. This approach relies on achieving information superiority to map the system and target these critical nodes quickly. The Chinese PLA also employs a similar concept of systems warfare.
Cyber and Space Domain Findings
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(00:32:53)
  • Key Takeaway: Cyber warfare is unlikely to be strategically decisive, while space assets create a deterrent effect against ‘space Pearl Harbor’ scenarios.
  • Summary: Research indicated cyber warfare would function primarily as an intelligence and enabling domain, unlikely to permanently disable critical infrastructure due to operational difficulties in wartime. The proliferation of mega-constellations in space creates a deterrent effect, making large, sudden kinetic attacks less likely, favoring electronic interference instead.
Air, Sea, and Land Domain Realities
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(00:35:06)
  • Key Takeaway: Both US and Chinese forces will quickly exhaust precision-guided munitions, making logistics and the underwater domain critical.
  • Summary: A major challenge for both sides in the air and maritime domains is the rapid depletion of precision munitions, placing immense pressure on logistics and resupply capabilities, which is harder for the US due to distance. The underwater domain, involving submarines and UUVs, is considered a highly effective US asset for preventing the PLA from breaking out of the first island chain.
Escalation Risks and Strategic Questions
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(00:45:49)
  • Key Takeaway: The US warfighting approach inherently risks vertical escalation, prompting the fundamental question of whether defending Taiwan is worth the potential cost.
  • Summary: The pursuit of rapid, decisive victory through deep strikes creates escalatory dynamics, as attacking command knots could inadvertently threaten China’s nuclear command and control. A core strategic question is whether political leaders genuinely understand the catastrophic consequences, including potential nuclear entanglement, associated with the military’s preferred warfighting concepts.
Alternative Strategy: Close Battle Focus
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(01:03:19)
  • Key Takeaway: To avoid vertical escalation, the US should focus on supporting a close battle in the Taiwan Strait, turning it into a ‘hellscape’ for the PLA.
  • Summary: The recommended alternative strategy involves avoiding deep strikes into China and instead focusing on destroying Chinese military assets within the Taiwan Strait. This requires doubling down on capabilities for the close fight, such as smart mines and anti-ship missiles, to sink the invasion fleet. This approach aims to preserve an independent, pro-Western Taiwan while minimizing the risk of escalating to nuclear conflict.