Intelligence Squared

The Age of the Strongman: Understanding Trump, with Anne Applebaum (Part Two)

October 27, 2025

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  • While the U.S. legal system has temporarily halted some of the Trump administration's most egregious actions, the method of 'break the law first and then wait for everybody to catch up' is fundamentally undermining the rule of law. 
  • Donald Trump's attraction to authoritarians like Putin and Xi Jinping stems from his instinctive dislike of checks and balances, coupled with a long history of business dealings and admiration for their power, though Putin may be calculating he can wait Trump out regarding the war in Ukraine. 
  • The 'MAGA' movement is not monolithic; internal battles exist between factions like the Bannon-aligned nationalists and those favoring continued U.S. global leadership (like the Rubio faction), while the underlying isolationist constituency Trump galvanized is a permanent factor in U.S. politics. 

Segments

Legal System Resilience and Limits
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(00:01:34)
  • Key Takeaway: The U.S. legal system has successfully stopped some administration actions, but the pattern of breaking laws first and waiting for legal catch-up undermines the rule of law.
  • Summary: Lawsuits have managed to halt certain actions by the administration, such as attempts to shut down foreign broadcasters. However, the strategy of acting first and dealing with legal consequences later erodes public sense of fairness. This pattern is expected to have significant long-term repercussions.
Supreme Court’s Role and Ideology
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(00:02:48)
  • Key Takeaway: The conservative majority on the Supreme Court, traditionally rooted in originalist jurisprudence, faces a test to determine if they prioritize constitutional fidelity over political partisanship.
  • Summary: The Supreme Court is seen as Trump’s ‘ace in the hole’ due to the successful packing of the court by Republicans. Originalist judges typically focus intensely on the literal text of the Constitution. The critical question is whether these judges will rule based on constitutional law or political alignment when faced with grotesque violations.
Trump’s Relationship with Autocrats
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(00:04:46)
  • Key Takeaway: Trump’s affinity for leaders like Putin and Xi stems from his admiration for their power and his instinctive dislike for the rule of law, rather than necessarily being controlled by blackmail.
  • Summary: Occam’s razor suggests Trump admires strongmen because he wishes to emulate their unchecked power, citing his praise for Putin and Xi Jinping. He is also attracted to them because they lack the checks and balances he dislikes, such as a Supreme Court. His long history of business dealings with Russians since the 1980s provides a financial context for this attraction.
Putin’s Strategy Regarding Trump
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(00:07:39)
  • Key Takeaway: Putin is calculating that he can wait out the U.S. and Europe because his core goal—destroying Ukraine’s sovereignty—is not aligned with Trump’s desire to end the war.
  • Summary: Despite Trump bending over backwards to facilitate a ceasefire, Putin does not want the war to end, as his goal remains the destruction of Ukrainian independence. Putin likely views Trump as weak and easily distracted, assuming he can wait for Trump to lose interest or be replaced. Trump’s team has even been negotiating business deals with Russia concurrently.
Authoritarian Alignment and Strategy
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(00:10:58)
  • Key Takeaway: The alignment between autocrats like Putin and Xi is not a secret conspiracy but an open strategic planning based on shared interests in undermining democracy.
  • Summary: The alignment among leaders like Putin, Xi, and Kim Jong-un is characterized by common financial, military, and narrative interests supporting autocracy over democracy. This is described as ‘strategic planning’ rather than a secret conspiracy, where they openly learn tactics from each other regarding suppressing dissent.
Damage to Democratic Alliances
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(00:12:32)
  • Key Takeaway: Trump is causing significant damage to the network of democratic alliances by promoting an isolationist view that questions the U.S. role as the leader of the free world.
  • Summary: Many international figures, particularly in Europe, express distress over the language used by the U.S. administration regarding international institutions and alliances like NATO. While leaders publicly flatter Trump, they are likely working on ‘Plan B’ behind the scenes. The constituency that dislikes NATO and U.S. global involvement has been moved from the fringes to the center of U.S. politics.
Internal Trump Administration Battles
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(00:17:28)
  • Key Takeaway: Internal policy battles exist within the administration, notably between factions favoring global engagement (Rubio) and those pushing for U.S. withdrawal (J.D. Vance circle).
  • Summary: Trump himself lacks a grand strategy, operating on fixed instincts like viewing alliances as wasteful, but advisors push contradictory strategies. One key battle pits those who want the U.S. to lead democracies against those advocating for troop withdrawal from Europe and Asia to focus solely on the Western Hemisphere. This was evidenced by internal discussions suggesting Europe should defend shipping lanes alone.
Architects of Change and End Goals
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(00:21:05)
  • Key Takeaway: The architects behind potential systemic change, such as those involved in Project 2025, aim to dismantle the existing political system, potentially creating a more explicitly Christian or white nation.
  • Summary: Advisors like Stephen Miller have specific goals, such as militarizing agencies like ICE, while others focus on changing the structure of government. A significant underlying goal for some factions is demographic change, including mass deportation and proposals to favor white European immigrants seeking refugee status. While Trump focuses on personal winning, these architects are focused on fundamentally altering the political system’s values.
Factors Threatening Democracy’s Survival
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(00:30:18)
  • Key Takeaway: The most likely factors to spur widespread American reaction against the administration’s actions are economic hardship, particularly rising healthcare costs, rather than corruption or attacks on democracy itself.
  • Summary: Due to news silos, many Americans are unaware of or unconcerned by corruption or attacks on democratic norms. Economic hardship, potentially driven by tariffs or the undermining of the rule of law, is the most probable catalyst for change. Specifically, rising healthcare premiums resulting from recent legislation are expected to drive home the message that fundamental changes are occurring.