The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe

The Skeptics Guide #1058 - Oct 18 2025

October 18, 2025

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  • Belief in demonstrably false misinformation is strongly predicted by a psychological construct called "symbolic strength," which reflects a desire to appear strong and resist perceived external influence, rather than by ideology or general gullibility. 
  • Measles has returned to the U.S. with case counts in 2025 already showing a 460% increase over 2024, driven by gaps in vaccination coverage and domestic spread, signaling a failure of herd immunity thresholds. 
  • The Supreme Court is considering a case that challenges the state's right to regulate therapy sessions (specifically conversion therapy) as standard of care, which could set a dangerous precedent undermining expertise and allowing quackery under the guise of free speech. 
  • Recent solar activity data suggests the Sun is not entering a prolonged grand minimum phase like the Maunder Minimum, but rather is slowly waking up, which has implications for space weather risks. 
  • A recent preprint paper suggesting a gravitational wave event (GW190521) was an echo from another universe via a wormhole is highly speculative and should be treated with extreme skepticism, as the standard black hole merger model is strongly favored. 
  • The discussion on the TikTok video about the Earth in a vacuum highlights the danger of treating large language models like ChatGPT as infallible oracles without applying critical thinking and contextual follow-up questions. 

Segments

Comet Viewing and Nostalgia
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(00:00:30)
  • Key Takeaway: Haley’s Comet viewing in the mid-1980s was disappointing due to its distance and poor weather, contrasting with the more visible Comet Hailbop.
  • Summary: Comet Lemon is currently transitioning to the Northern Hemisphere, offering good viewing opportunities at the end of October, though likely requiring binoculars for visibility outside dark sky locations. Stephen Novella expressed lingering disappointment over the poor viewing conditions for the iconic Haley’s Comet in 1986. Naked-eye visible comets that are high above the horizon are rare experiences for many observers.
Number Biases and Symmetry
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(00:03:09)
  • Key Takeaway: The preference for certain numbers, like Stephen Novella’s bias for even numbers and the discussion around the cultural significance of 12 versus 5 or 13, relates to perceived symmetry and utility.
  • Summary: Kara Santa Maria is approaching her 42nd birthday, referencing the Hitchhiker’s Guide answer. The hosts debated the merits of numbers like five (seen as the ‘best’ by one host) versus twelve (noted for its utility in measurement systems). The linguistic structure of ’teen’ numbers, starting at 13 instead of 11, was questioned as an illogical linguistic artifact.
Misinformation and Symbolic Strength
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(00:07:13)
  • Key Takeaway: Belief in bizarre misinformation is strongly predicted by a need to display ‘symbolic strength’—showing the ’enemy’ one is not backing down—rather than by political alignment or general gullibility.
  • Summary: A study across eight countries during COVID-19 found that endorsing misinformation correlated with feeling that following guidelines showed weakness. This symbolic strength mindset is likened to psychological warfare, where endorsing a belief signals defiance against an external enemy, regardless of factual accuracy. This mindset also correlated with authoritarian attitudes and support for autocratic governments, as seen in reactions to political claims.
Resurgence of Measles Cases
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(00:26:01)
  • Key Takeaway: Confirmed U.S. measles cases in 2025 have reached 1,596 by mid-October, a 460% increase over 2024, driven entirely by anti-vaccine sentiment eroding the 95% herd immunity threshold.
  • Summary: Measles was officially eliminated in the U.S. in 2000, but outbreaks are now surging, with 86% of 2025 cases tied to defined outbreaks in low-vaccination communities like Texas. The majority of confirmed cases (92%) involved unvaccinated or status-unknown individuals, indicating that domestic spread, not importation, is the primary driver. The return of measles is predictable consequence of fear-mongering and declining MMR compliance below the necessary 95% threshold.
Therapy, Free Speech, and Malpractice
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(00:39:45)
  • Key Takeaway: The Supreme Court is reviewing whether banning conversion therapy infringes on a therapist’s free speech, a ruling that could dangerously undermine the state’s ability to regulate professional standards of care across all medical fields.
  • Summary: Conversion therapy (Sexual Orientation Change Efforts) is condemned by major medical bodies as ineffective and harmful, causing psychological distress and increasing suicidal ideation. The Colorado case argues that banning this practice violates free speech, but experts counter that regulating professional conduct within a licensed relationship is not the same as regulating public speech. If the court sides with free speech over professional regulation, it could allow any ‘quack’ to hide behind free speech to practice substandard or harmful interventions.
Solar Activity and Cycles
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(00:56:42)
  • Key Takeaway: New NASA research investigates whether the sun is entering a decades-long slump or secretly revving up since 2008, challenging the simple 11-year solar cycle model.
  • Summary: The sun operates on an approximately 11-year cycle tracked by sunspot counts, which includes a magnetic pole reversal at the maximum. Historically, the sun has experienced grand minima, such as the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715), where sunspots virtually disappeared for decades. Recent solar cycles, including the one ending in 2019, have been notably weak, leading researchers to question if a long-term quiescent phase is beginning.
Solar Activity Reversal Analysis
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(00:59:23)
  • Key Takeaway: Analysis of solar cycle 24 showed the solar wind strength stopped declining, indicating the Sun is reversing its trend of low activity, contrary to expectations of entering a grand minimum.
  • Summary: Historical solar lulls, like the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715), coincided with cooler climates, prompting concern that a new minimum could cool the Earth. Researchers found that attributes of the solar wind (speed, density, pressure) began increasing after 2008, signaling the Sun is ‘slowly waking up’ as it moves through solar cycle 25, which is punchier than cycle 24. Understanding solar rhythms better than just 11-year cycles, perhaps using the 22-year Hale cycle, is necessary for accurate forecasting.
Wormhole Detection Speculation
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(01:07:46)
  • Key Takeaway: A preprint paper reinterpreting a 2019 gravitational wave event (GW190521) as an echo from a black hole merger in another universe transmitted through a wormhole is highly speculative and lacks peer review.
  • Summary: The wormhole hypothesis requires invoking unproven concepts like exotic negative energy to hold open the throat, violating Occam’s Razor when compared to the standard, known physics of a binary black hole merger. The authors’ statistical analysis only showed the wormhole model could not be strictly ruled out, leading to media clickbait headlines. The prevailing scientific consensus strongly favors the standard black hole merger interpretation.
Who’s That Noisy Turtle Mating
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(01:16:46)
  • Key Takeaway: The correct answer to the ‘Who’s That Noisy’ challenge was the sound of a turtle mating, recorded and then overlaid with piano music.
  • Summary: Multiple listeners guessed correctly that the sound involved an animal, with one listener correctly identifying the sound as a turtle mating, supported by video evidence that has since been removed. The audio was likely an authentic recording of the act with music added later. Listeners are encouraged to submit future noisy clips to wtn@theskepticsguide.org.
SGU Support and Mission Reminder
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(01:21:31)
  • Key Takeaway: The hosts emphasized the critical need to support the show via Patreon to continue educating the public with science and critical thinking during increasingly unreasonable times.
  • Summary: The Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe maintains a weekly mailing list accessible via their homepage for updates on their work. Becoming a patron on Patreon is presented as a direct way to support the mission of getting real information out and being a voice of reason. The hosts acknowledge the current difficult climate and stress that work needs to be done in the short term to educate people.
Name That Logical Fallacy: Absurdum
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(01:23:32)
  • Key Takeaway: The argument, ‘If you think porn causes no harms, then let’s broadcast it in every public place,’ is an invalid argument from absurdum, as it misrepresents the original premise by taking it to an extreme that ignores unstated premises like public appropriateness.
  • Summary: The fallacy is related to the slippery slope and argument at absurdum, but it is invalid because it introduces unstated premises (like public broadcast suitability) that were not part of the original claim about harm. A valid argument at absurdum tests the logical conclusion of a premise, whereas an invalid one argues against an absurd extreme to discredit a reasonable position.
Critique of ChatGPT Vacuum Answer
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(01:26:27)
  • Key Takeaway: The TikTok video demonstrating ChatGPT’s initial incorrect answer about the Earth in a vacuum highlights the danger of treating LLMs as infallible oracles without applying contextual follow-up questions.
  • Summary: ChatGPT initially stated the atmosphere would boil away if Earth entered a vacuum because it failed to recognize Earth is already in a vacuum (space). The model only provided contextually accurate information after being prompted with clarifying questions about the Earth’s current state. This illustrates that LLMs scrape existing online data, including misinformation, and require skeptical interrogation to yield reliable scientific information.
Science or Fiction: Insect Facts
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(01:30:45)
  • Key Takeaway: The statement that insect flight evolved independently three times among insects is fiction; all flying insects share a common winged ancestor, unlike the four independent origins of flight in vertebrates (insects, pterosaurs, bats, birds).
  • Summary: Termites are scientifically classified as a type of cockroach and possess the most complex social structure among them, featuring caste division. The largest insect ever, Meganuropsis permiana, was a giant dragonfly with a 2.5-foot wingspan whose size was enabled by the high atmospheric oxygen levels (30-35%) during the Permian period. Insect size is limited by their passive oxygen diffusion system (spiracles), which cannot support large bodies when oxygen levels drop, as they did later in the Permian.
Quote of the Week Reflection
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(01:43:08)
  • Key Takeaway: Joseph Barber Lightfoot’s quote suggests that energy spent trying to know inherently unknowable concepts (like the afterlife) is wasted, diverting focus from tangible pursuits.
  • Summary: The quote distinguishes between things that are currently unknown (which are subject to scientific inquiry) and things that are inherently unknowable by definition. One pernicious human behavior that wastes energy is obsessing over inventing and analyzing the unknowable thoughts and feelings of others without direct communication. The hosts agree that focusing energy on non-empirical, abstract mysteries is generally futile.