The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe

The Skeptics Guide #1066 - Dec 13 2025

December 13, 2025

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  • The debate surrounding the sharp uptick in early-onset cancers among people under 50 involves conflicting expert opinions on whether the cause is improved detection methods or genuine environmental factors, complicated by the risk of over-treatment. 
  • A massive French observational study on COVID-19 mRNA vaccines found vaccinated individuals had a 74% lower risk of death from severe COVID-19 and a 25% lower risk of all-cause mortality over four years, supporting vaccine safety and efficacy. 
  • Cosmic radiation, specifically secondary particles like neutrons generated in atmospheric 'air showers,' likely caused a single event upset (bit flip) in an Airbus Elevator Aileron Computer (ELAC), leading to an uncommanded pitch down event and subsequent grounding of thousands of aircraft for software fixes. 
  • Simon Cowell's reported 'blood cleansing' rejuvenation treatment is likely a form of apheresis, a legitimate medical procedure used for specific conditions, but its application for anti-aging is presented as unsubstantiated wellness hype with inherent risks. 
  • The 'Who Said That' game revealed that the quote about wrestling with the heavens and planets traveling in stretched curves belonged to Johannes Kepler, while a quote about gamma interactions pointed to the fictional Bruce Banner. 
  • The 'Science or Fiction' segment confirmed that French became the official language of England after the 1066 Norman Conquest and remained so until 1362, and that the decisive technology of the battle was conventionally cited as the stirrup, though the hosts noted the Anglo-Saxons also possessed them. 
  • Judging historical figures requires complex consideration of the standards of their time versus modern standards, acknowledging that most people align with the contemporary norm (the middle of the bell curve). 
  • It is difficult to objectively view one's own time period because people do not realize they are 'in history' while living through it, unlike historical figures whose context is clearer in retrospect. 
  • The discussion suggests a degree of hypocrisy in judging past generations for adhering to the norms of their time when current listeners are likely situated in the middle of their own era's bell curve. 

Segments

Holiday Banter and Show Intro
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(00:00:03)
  • Key Takeaway: The Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe episode #1066 was recorded on Tuesday, December 9th, 2025.
  • Summary: The episode opened with introductions from host Stephen Novella and panelists Bob Novella, Cara Santa Maria, Jay Novella, and Evan Bernstein. The hosts briefly discussed holiday decorating habits. Listeners were reminded to submit votes for the upcoming year-in-review show.
Young People Cancer Incidence Debate
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(00:04:35)
  • Key Takeaway: Experts are divided on whether the rising incidence of eight specific cancers in people under 50 is due to environmental factors or improved diagnostic sensitivity, as evidenced by stable mortality rates for some cancers.
  • Summary: Eight cancers, including thyroid, kidney, and colorectal, show a significant incidence increase since 1992 among those under 50. Researchers from Harvard and Brigham and Women’s suggest the rise might be ‘more apparent than real’ due to better detection, citing stable death rates for some cancers. The discussion highlights the clinical conundrum of over-treatment versus under-screening for early-stage, potentially benign tumors.
Human Adaptation to Modernity
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(00:18:15)
  • Key Takeaway: Modern environments dominated by artificial materials, industrial pollutants, and constant indoor exposure may be undermining fundamental biological systems supporting evolutionary fitness, particularly reproductive function.
  • Summary: Evolutionary anthropologists question if human biology can keep pace with rapid environmental changes since industrialization, noting that over half of humanity now lives in cities, often spending 93% of time indoors. Industrial contaminants like microplastics, pesticides, and endocrine disruptors plausibly impair fertility by causing oxidative stress and DNA damage. Reduced exposure to diverse environmental microbes also hinders proper immune system training.
Sponsor Break: Aura Frames
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(00:30:13)
  • Key Takeaway: Aura Frames offers Carver mat frames, which can be preloaded with photos and make a premium, non-price-tagged gift.
  • Summary: Aura Frames is promoted as a reliable gift solution, even for less tech-savvy recipients, as photos can be preloaded before shipping. Listeners can save $35 on Carver mat frames using the promo code ‘skeptics’ at checkout.
mRNA Vaccine Safety Data
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(00:31:30)
  • Key Takeaway: A massive, four-year French observational study of 28 million people confirmed that mRNA COVID-19 vaccines effectively reduced death from severe COVID-19 and showed no signal of increased all-cause mortality.
  • Summary: The study compared vaccinated and unvaccinated groups (aged 18-59) while controlling for demographics and 41 comorbidities. Vaccinated individuals were 74% less likely to die from COVID-19 and 25% less likely to die from any cause. The data suggests that any potential side effects from the vaccine are less risky than contracting the infection itself.
Cosmic Rays Grounding Aircraft
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(00:47:03)
  • Key Takeaway: Cosmic radiation interacting with the atmosphere created secondary particles, likely neutrons, which caused a single event upset (bit flip) in an Airbus Elevator Aileron Computer (ELAC), forcing an urgent software fix for thousands of planes.
  • Summary: An Airbus A320 experienced an uncommanded pitch down event after a computer malfunction, leading to injuries. The European Union’s Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) issued an emergency directive because such an event could theoretically exceed the aircraft’s structural capability. The mechanism involves high-energy cosmic rays creating an ‘air shower’ of secondary particles, including neutrons, which deposit charge in silicon chips at cruising altitudes.
Simon Cowell Aging Claim Analysis
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(00:59:28)
  • Key Takeaway: Simon Cowell’s claimed ‘blood cleansing’ rejuvenation procedure is likely apheresis, which is medically used for specific conditions like autoimmune diseases or high cholesterol, but the wellness application is highly suspect.
  • Summary: The procedure described involves removing, filtering, and reinfusing blood, potentially involving oxygenation or ozone exposure, which carries risks like disrupting blood osmolarity or pH balance. Medically legitimate apheresis removes targeted components, often requiring replacement substances like albumin, which is unlikely to be done correctly in a wellness clinic setting. The actual benefits Cowell attributes to the treatment are likely due to his concurrent lifestyle changes: better eating, more exercise, and less stress.
Who’s That Noisy Reveal
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(01:09:52)
  • Key Takeaway: The sound identified in the ‘Who’s That Noisy’ segment was a 60-inch Zildjian Avedis gong being struck by a gong hammer, not bowed.
  • Summary: Multiple listeners guessed various sounds, including lightning on Mars and bowed metal plates. The correct identification was a large orchestral gong played by percussionist Bear Love Flumie. The sound was created by striking the gong with a hammer, contrasting with the incorrect guess that it was being bowed.
Tour Dates and Announcements
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(01:14:41)
  • Key Takeaway: The Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe has upcoming live shows scheduled in Seattle (January 10th) and later in Australia and New Zealand in July/August 2026.
  • Summary: The Seattle show on January 10th will be a private, three-hour live podcast recording featuring all five hosts, followed by a Skeptical Extravaganza stage show themed around sensory deception. Tickets for the 2026 Australian and New Zealand legs of the tour are forthcoming, with dates set for Los Angeles, Sydney, Noticon, and Christchurch.
Pronunciation Debates and Emails
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(01:17:09)
  • Key Takeaway: The correct pronunciation of actor Ralph Fiennes’ first name is ‘Rafe,’ and the tech company NVIDIA is officially pronounced ‘NVIDIA,’ based on the Latin root ‘Nvidia,’ despite its spelling suggesting ‘Nvidia.’
  • Summary: The hosts debated the correct pronunciation of Ralph Fiennes, noting he prefers ‘Rafe,’ and discussed the common mispronunciation of NVIDIA. The segment highlighted how spelling can mislead pronunciation, especially with names derived from other languages or historical conventions.
EU Gene Editing Regulations Update
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(01:24:15)
  • Key Takeaway: The European Union reached a deal to exempt gene-edited crops and animals (New Genomic Techniques or NGTs) from strict GMO regulations because the edits mimic natural breeding processes.
  • Summary: This regulatory change aims to reduce the competitive disadvantage faced by EU farmers due to onerous anti-GMO rules. The distinction is made because NGTs create edits that could potentially occur through traditional breeding, unlike transgenic GMOs which introduce foreign genes. This shift is seen as necessary to allow for beneficial modifications, such as adapting crops to climate change.
Who Am I? Game Session
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(01:28:18)
  • Key Takeaway: The ‘Who Am I?’ game successfully identified Stephen Hawking, Oliver Sacks, Bruce Banner, and Johannes Kepler through self-descriptive quotes related to science and skepticism.
  • Summary: The game required participants to guess the identity of a person (real or fictitious) based on a descriptive paragraph, with strict rules against blurting out the answer. The final quote, concerning the rejection of perfect circles in favor of stretched curves for planetary motion, correctly identified Johannes Kepler.
Science or Fiction: 1066 Theme
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(01:35:44)
  • Key Takeaway: The fiction item in the 1066-themed round was the assertion that the stirrup was the decisive technology of the Battle of Hastings, as the Anglo-Saxons also possessed stirrups, though the Normans used the technique more effectively.
  • Summary: All three statements related to the Battle of Hastings were initially believed to be science by most panelists, except for the stirrup claim. It was confirmed that French became the official language of England post-conquest until 1362, and Haley’s Comet did appear in 1066 and was depicted in the Bayeux Tapestry (which is technically an embroidery). The stirrup’s role was deemed not decisive because the opposing side already had them, though the Normans employed the technique better.
Closing Quote Reflection
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(01:54:07)
  • Key Takeaway: Carl Sagan’s quote from The Demon-Haunted World questions the fairness of judging past individuals by modern ethical standards, acknowledging that most people align with the prevailing norms of their own time.
  • Summary: The quote prompts reflection on historical judgment, noting that people are creatures of their time and often assume they would have been the progressives in any era. The discussion concluded that most individuals likely fall near the center of their time’s societal bell curve, making judgment complicated.
Judging Past Standards
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(01:54:35)
  • Key Takeaway: Assessing historical figures requires balancing contemporary moral standards against the prevailing norms of their specific time.
  • Summary: The extent to which people in the past should be judged by current standards is complicated. There were always progressive individuals within any historical period, meaning the worst behavior was not universally accepted as the standard. Listeners are challenged to consider where they would fall on the political or social bell curve of their own time.
Self-Reflection on Norms
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(01:55:33)
  • Key Takeaway: Hypocrisy arises when current individuals, situated in the middle of today’s societal bell curve, harshly criticize those who occupied the middle of the bell curve in previous centuries.
  • Summary: Societal behavior generally follows a bell curve, meaning most people adhere to the contemporary norm. Critiquing past generations for conforming to their norm while ignoring one’s own present conformity can be seen as hypocritical. One should actively question their relative position to the current norm.
Objectivity and Historical Perspective
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(01:56:15)
  • Key Takeaway: Achieving objective historical analysis is difficult because participants within an era are generally unaware they are living through a significant historical event.
  • Summary: It is inherently difficult to step outside of one’s own time to view events objectively, as people do not recognize they are ‘in history’ while it is happening. For example, participants in the American Revolution likely viewed events as daily struggles rather than a grand, unfolding revolution. Events often unfold organically rather than according to a pre-planned trajectory.
Listener Engagement and Sign-off
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(01:57:03)
  • Key Takeaway: Listeners of The Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe are encouraged to submit their choices for the year-end review episode.
  • Summary: Listeners should send in their selections for the ‘best of everything’ to be featured in the upcoming year-end review episode. The Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe is produced by SGU Productions and promotes science and critical thinking. Support for the show is available via Patreon.