The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe

The Skeptics Guide #1069 - Jan 3 2026

January 3, 2026

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  • The hosts reviewed their 2025 psychic predictions, finding that professional psychics rely heavily on vague, unfalsifiable claims or predictions based on existing trends, while the hosts' own research-backed predictions showed mixed but comparable results. 
  • The discussion on Electric Vehicles (EVs) highlighted that while US EV sales softened in 2025 due to cultural and incentive uncertainty, global sales grew robustly, and major battery innovations (silicon anode and sodium ion) are expected to drive significant improvements in range and cost in 2026. 
  • A study on adult ADHD suggests that alongside managing deficits, a strengths-based approach focusing on awareness and utilization of traits like creativity and hyper-focus is a legitimate factor in improving well-being and quality of life, even if individuals with ADHD are not currently better at recognizing these strengths than the general population. 
  • Individuals with ADHD should actively address their deficits while simultaneously leaning into and leveraging the unique strengths enhanced by their condition, rather than focusing solely on negatives. 
  • The nature of consciousness is debated between computationalism (software/information processing matters) and biological naturalism (hardware/physical processes matter), with a proposed third way being biological computationalism, which insists that computation and substrate are inseparable. 
  • Low Earth Orbit fragility has drastically increased, evidenced by the 'crash clock' dropping from 121 days in 2018 to just 2.8 days in mid-2025, meaning a loss of collision avoidance capability for less than three days could trigger catastrophic orbital collisions. 
  • The transition to digital IDs faces hurdles due to the need for physical backups, the cost savings incentive for states, and the fact that not everyone owns a smartphone. 
  • Tech companies are investing in Small Modular Reactor (SMR) technology, with three test modules planned to come online in 2026, as a low-carbon solution to power energy-hungry AI data centers and mitigate local grid strain. 
  • The historical significance of Galileo's quote, "In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual," highlights the successful transition from authority-based knowledge (like that of the Church or Aristotle) to evidence-based reasoning in modern science and academia, a battle still being fought in areas like morality and religion. 

Segments

New Year’s Day Recording
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(00:00:12)
  • Key Takeaway: The Skeptic’s Guide to the Universe episode #1069 was recorded on January 1st, 2026.
  • Summary: The host, Stephen Novella, welcomed Bob Novella, Kara Santa Maria, Jay Novella, and Evan Bernstein to record the first episode of the year on New Year’s Day. The hosts noted this was an unusual recording date necessitated by their schedules. The conversation briefly touched upon their New Year’s Eve activities, noting they were up past midnight.
EV Purchase and Hydrogen Cars
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(00:01:56)
  • Key Takeaway: Hydrogen fuel cell cars are significantly less energy efficient than EVs, and currently, 99% of global hydrogen production relies on fossil fuels, negating environmental benefits.
  • Summary: Stephen Novella detailed purchasing his second EV, leading to a discussion where he argued against hydrogen fuel cell vehicles due to fundamental physics limitations on efficiency. He noted that only 1% of current hydrogen production is ‘green hydrogen,’ making it environmentally comparable to gasoline. Furthermore, developing hydrogen infrastructure is much harder than EV infrastructure.
EV Battery Market Innovations
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(00:10:41)
  • Key Takeaway: Two major battery innovations are set to impact the EV market in 2026: high-end silicon anode batteries offering double the range, and low-end sodium ion batteries offering half the cost for standard ranges.
  • Summary: The conversation detailed upcoming battery technology, including silicon anode batteries that could provide 400+ miles of range, and sodium ion batteries entering production that use cheaper materials. These innovations suggest EVs will become cheaper to buy and offer greater range, making their adoption inevitable compared to internal combustion engines.
Geographic Differences in EV Infrastructure
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(00:12:46)
  • Key Takeaway: EV infrastructure quality varies drastically by location, being phenomenal in dense areas like California and the Eastern US corridor but increasingly challenging in rural areas.
  • Summary: The hosts acknowledged that their personal experiences with EV infrastructure are geographically biased, with California having excellent coverage. The adoption of the NACS (North American Charging Standard) connector by many manufacturers is improving interoperability. EV road trips require planning, but the charging time can sometimes be less than the time spent on a traditional gas stop.
Reviewing 2025 Psychic Predictions
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(00:16:37)
  • Key Takeaway: Professional psychics failed to make any accurate, specific predictions for 2025, relying instead on vague statements about conflict or unfalsifiable spiritual shifts.
  • Summary: The hosts reviewed the collective predictions from professional psychics for 2025, noting a lack of accuracy, citing examples like predictions of a King Kong-like gorilla or penguin invasions. The hosts then reviewed their own predictions, with Stephen Novella scoring 3 out of 4 correct based on research, including the shift in the Russia-Ukraine war phase and 2025 being a top-five warmest year.
2026 Psychic Predictions
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(00:36:44)
  • Key Takeaway: The hosts made specific, research-informed predictions for 2026, including the US losing measles elimination status, a major AI-generated content conviction in court, and multiple satellite collisions due to a solar storm.
  • Summary: The hosts presented their predictions for 2026, contrasting their specificity with the vagueness of professional psychics. Jay Novella predicted the US would lose its measles elimination status and that Democrats would win the House and Senate. Evan Bernstein predicted the discovery of pieces of the Amber Room and a major data breach caused by Agentic AI.
Psychological Strengths in ADHD
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(00:44:07)
  • Key Takeaway: Adults with ADHD report endorsing specific strengths like creativity and hyper-focus more strongly than neurotypical adults, but they are less aware of these strengths and their utilization does not yet correlate with better outcomes than in the general population.
  • Summary: A study titled ‘The Role of Psychological Strengths and Positive Life Outcomes in Adults with ADHD’ surveyed 400 adults, finding that the ADHD group endorsed strengths like creativity, humor, and intuition more highly. Crucially, the study found that awareness and use of strengths correlated with better well-being in both groups, suggesting a strengths-based approach should supplement traditional deficit management in ADHD support.
ADHD Strengths-Based Approach
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(00:55:45)
  • Key Takeaway: Individuals with ADHD must actively embrace and lean into their inherent strengths alongside managing recognized deficits for optimal outcomes.
  • Summary: People with ADHD possess untapped potential residing in their enhanced traits, which should be actively focused upon. While deficits require support through therapy or medication, a holistic view demands leveraging these positive traits to mitigate negatives. This approach contrasts with modern medicine’s tendency to focus almost exclusively on deficits.
Biological vs Artificial Consciousness
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(00:59:12)
  • Key Takeaway: The paper ‘Biological Computationalism’ proposes consciousness requires a hybrid of discrete neuronal firing and continuous dynamics, being scale-inseparable, and metabolically grounded.
  • Summary: Two main schools of thought, computationalism (substrate irrelevant) and biological naturalism (biology is essential), are reviewed, leading to the hybrid concept of biological computationalism. This view posits that consciousness is neither pure software nor hardware, but an inseparable combination of both, constrained by metabolic efficiency. The idea that the brain is simultaneously hardware and software (‘wetware’) is an old concept, predating the paper’s formulation.
Fentanyl Vaccine Development
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(01:17:17)
  • Key Takeaway: Armor Sciences is developing an immunoconjugate vaccine that prevents fentanyl from crossing the blood-brain barrier by inducing antibodies, potentially blocking overdose effects.
  • Summary: The vaccine uses non-toxic components (like deactivated diphtheria toxin CRM197) linked to an inactive piece of the fentanyl molecule to trigger an immune response. This mechanism differs from Narcan or Suboxone because it stops the drug from binding to opioid receptors entirely, preventing respiratory depression and the high. The vaccine is set to enter Phase 1 clinical trials in the Netherlands soon, offering a potential harm reduction tool for opioid use disorder.
Orbital Disaster Risk Assessment
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(01:30:45)
  • Key Takeaway: Mega-satellite constellations have reduced the ‘crash clock’—the time until a catastrophic collision occurs without avoidance maneuvers—from 121 days (2018) to only 2.8 days (mid-2025).
  • Summary: The ‘crash clock’ (Collision Realization and Significant Harm) measures orbital fragility, indicating that losing control of satellites for just 24 hours carries a 30% chance of a major collision. This rapid decline is attributed to mega-constellations like Starlink, which cause close encounters every 20 seconds. Solar storms exacerbate this risk by causing atmospheric drag and disrupting navigation systems, potentially initiating a Kessler syndrome cascade.
Who’s That Noisy Reveal
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(01:43:15)
  • Key Takeaway: The sound played was the activation noise of a thermal detonator from Star Wars Episode VI: Return of the Jedi.
  • Summary: Listener Ron Hart correctly identified the sound as the thermal detonator used by Princess Leia to threaten Jabba the Hutt. The sound effect is associated with the handheld grenade device from the film. The segment concluded with a new, unidentified sound provided by listener Cameron Harris.
Science or Fiction 2026 Tech
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(01:47:43)
  • Key Takeaway: Major League Baseball will introduce a limited Robo-Ump challenge system in 2026, while the phasing in of digital passports for international travel remains fiction for now.
  • Summary: MLB’s system allows teams two challenges per game to verify ball/strike calls made by human umpires, a compromise based on fan feedback against a fully automated system. Digital IDs are already being phased in for domestic travel/driver’s licenses in about a third of US states, but using them for international travel is not yet permitted. Tech companies are investing in small modular reactors, with three test models planned for 2026, partly to address the massive energy demands of AI data centers.
Digital vs. Physical IDs
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(01:57:59)
  • Key Takeaway: Physical IDs will persist temporarily due to security backups and the lack of universal smartphone ownership, despite the high annual cost of managing physical identification documents.
  • Summary: Physical passports and IDs are likely to remain available for the foreseeable future as a backup, especially for those without functional phones. States have a significant financial incentive, saving millions annually, to transition citizens to digital driver’s licenses. This transition is driven by the massive operational costs associated with producing and handling physical identification.
SMRs Powering Data Centers
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(01:58:56)
  • Key Takeaway: Tech companies are planning to deploy Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) near data centers to secure dedicated, low-carbon energy supply amidst growing local pushback over grid strain and rising electricity prices.
  • Summary: Data centers, particularly those supporting AI, require immense energy, leading to potential strain and price hikes on local grids. To circumvent this, major companies are investing in SMR technology, aiming for three test modules to reach criticality in 2026. This strategy addresses both energy demand and environmental concerns by providing localized, low-carbon power generation.
Galileo Quote and Authority
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(02:00:47)
  • Key Takeaway: Galileo Galilei asserted that scientific truth relies on humble reasoning over the authority of many, reflecting the historical shift from dogma to evidence-based empiricism.
  • Summary: The quote emphasizes that scientific knowledge must be based on logic, evidence, and process rather than deference to established authority, which historically included the Church and ancient philosophers like Aristotle. While modern science and academia have largely adopted this evidence-based standard, authority-based arguments persist, notably in moral debates where some claim ethics must originate from divine authority.
Morality Without Divine Authority
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(02:04:13)
  • Key Takeaway: Ethical principles can be derived through logic, first principles, and philosophy, countering the argument that morality requires the imposition of rules by an alleged divine authority.
  • Summary: The belief that morality must be based on God is an authority-based argument that fails when confronted with the diversity of religious claims, which cannot be resolved internally. Human ethics can be reasoned out through philosophy, suggesting that the fear that morality collapses without divine threat reflects a dark view of human nature. Most people possess the intellect to reason toward ethical behavior without fear of retribution.