The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe

The Skeptics Guide #987 - Jun 8 2024

June 8, 2024

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  • The discussion on **Adaptogens** highlights that the term lacks a precise scientific definition, is not recognized by the FDA, and functions primarily as a vague marketing tool for supplements, often leveraging concepts like 'balancing hormones' without specific evidence. 
  • New research updates to the **Drake Equation** incorporate factors like continents, oceans, and plate tectonics, suggesting that advanced communicative civilizations in the Milky Way might be far rarer than previously estimated, potentially explaining the Fermi Paradox. 
  • The hosts discussed the trend of younger menarche (first period), noting that while childhood obesity accounts for about half the variance, other factors like diet, psychological stress, and environmental endocrine disruptors are also being investigated as contributors. 
  • Retired Colonel Carl Nell's high-confidence claims about non-human intelligence interacting with humanity are being scrutinized as another example of how intelligent individuals can lack critical thinking skills regarding unsubstantiated extraordinary claims. 
  • A new metasurface technology utilizing lithium niobate has achieved record efficiency in directly converting shortwave infrared light to visible light while solving the previous issue of image blurring, promising significant advancements in night vision. 
  • The belief that aliens or non-indigenous groups built ancient wonders like the pyramids is rooted in a long-standing racist historical pedigree used to diminish the accomplishments of non-European cultures. 
  • Genetic engineering to enhance photosynthesis by implementing C4 carbon fixation pathways shows promise for increasing biomass accumulation in plants by up to 53%, with potential applications for both carbon sequestration and crop yield improvement. 
  • The discussion highlights the practical benefits of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in agriculture, noting that farmers adopt these technologies based on business decisions, despite facing public anti-GMO propaganda. 
  • The segment concludes with the philosophical reminder, attributed to George Box, that all scientific models are inherently wrong, but their utility is determined by how wrong they must be to cease being useful for prediction and problem-solving. 

Segments

Mochi Health Member Story
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(00:00:00)
  • Key Takeaway: A Mochi Health member shared a positive experience regarding empathetic physician support for GLP-1 treatment.
  • Summary: The segment begins with a testimonial from Sadie, a Mochi member, praising the empathetic and non-judgmental support she received from her physician at Mochi Health regarding her need for a GLP-1 medication.
Podcast Introduction and Hosts
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(00:00:33)
  • Key Takeaway: The hosts of The Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe introduced the episode.
  • Summary: The hosts—Stephen Novella, Bob Novella, Kara Santa Maria, Jay Novella, and Evan Bernstein—introduce the episode of The Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe, noting the date is Wednesday, June 5th, 2024.
Stephen’s Dog’s Neurological Event
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(00:01:03)
  • Key Takeaway: Stephen Novella’s dog experienced sudden, intense neurological symptoms requiring an emergency vet visit.
  • Summary: Stephen recounts the frightening experience of his 14-year-old dog, Killer, suddenly developing intense nystagmus and unresponsiveness, leading him to rush the dog to the emergency vet in a panic.
Diagnosis of Vestibular Syndrome
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(00:02:53)
  • Key Takeaway: Killer was diagnosed with acute vestibular syndrome, possibly due to a stroke or idiopathic causes.
  • Summary: After initial tests, the dog was seen by a veterinary neurologist and diagnosed with acute vestibular syndrome. The likely causes are a stroke in the cerebellum or idiopathic causes, with an MRI being the only way to confirm a stroke, though treatment wouldn’t change.
Cost of Dog MRI
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(00:03:13)
  • Key Takeaway: The cost of an MRI for a dog is prohibitively high, estimated between $6,000 and $8,000.
  • Summary: The hosts discuss the high cost of veterinary MRIs, which Stephen learned was between $6,000 and $8,000, noting this is more than a human MRI due to the need for anesthesia.
Kara’s Dog’s Similar Experience
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(00:04:20)
  • Key Takeaway: Kara shared that her younger dog previously had the exact same symptoms, which resolved without extensive workup.
  • Summary: Kara relates to Stephen’s story, describing how her younger dachshund experienced sudden severe nystagmus and inability to walk, which was treated with comfort care and resolved completely.
Killer’s Recovery Progress
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(00:06:07)
  • Key Takeaway: Killer’s nystagmus has resolved, but a permanent head tilt and dizziness remain, causing him to stumble.
  • Summary: Stephen updates on Killer’s condition nearly a week later: the nystagmus is gone, but he still has a head tilt and is very dizzy, causing him to fall over if he shakes his head or moves too fast.
Discussion on Pet Lifespans
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(00:10:37)
  • Key Takeaway: The hosts reflect on the short lifespans of pets and the emotional difficulty of outliving them.
  • Summary: The conversation shifts to how short pet lifespans are, with the hosts wishing pets lived longer, and Stephen noting that people facing end-of-life issues often worry most about leaving their pets behind.
Drake Equation Updates
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(00:13:36)
  • Key Takeaway: New research proposes updating the Drake equation by including factors like continents and plate tectonics, suggesting advanced civilizations are rare.
  • Summary: Bob discusses new research suggesting additions to the Drake equation—like the fraction of planets with continents and long-term plate tectonics—which leads to the conclusion that advanced communicative civilizations in the galaxy might be extremely rare, potentially explaining the Fermi paradox.
China’s Chang’e 6 Lunar Mission
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(00:18:40)
  • Key Takeaway: China’s Chang’e 6 probe successfully collected the first rock samples from the far side of the Moon and is returning to Earth.
  • Summary: Jay reports on the Chang’e 6 mission, which left the far side of the Moon after collecting samples from the South Pole’s Aitken Basin, marking the first time rocks have been collected from that side.
Boeing Starliner Astronaut Launch
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(00:23:40)
  • Key Takeaway: Boeing’s Starliner successfully launched its first crewed mission carrying two NASA astronauts to the ISS.
  • Summary: Jay details the successful launch of the Boeing Starliner CFT mission carrying astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, noting the delays due to technical issues and the goal of testing the spacecraft for regular six-month missions.
ISS Future and Decommissioning
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(00:26:21)
  • Key Takeaway: The ISS is expected to be operational until 2030, after which it will likely be deorbited into the ocean.
  • Summary: The hosts discuss the planned retirement of the International Space Station around 2030 and the logistics of safely deorbiting the massive structure into a remote part of the Pacific Ocean.
Adaptogens: Vague Pseudoscience
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(00:28:17)
  • Key Takeaway: Adaptogens are a vague marketing term for supplements lacking scientific definition, often relying on old pseudoscience concepts like ‘balancing’ the body.
  • Summary: The hosts dissect the term ‘adaptogen,’ noting it has no accepted scientific definition and is used to market herbs and supplements with vague claims like boosting the immune system or balancing hormones, echoing historical pseudoscience.
DSHEA and Marketing Loopholes
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(00:40:24)
  • Key Takeaway: The Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act (DSHEA) created a legal loophole allowing companies to make structure/function claims without evidence.
  • Summary: Steve explains how DSHEA allows supplement companies to make vague claims (e.g., ‘promotes a healthy outlook’) without naming specific diseases, enabling the marketing of products like adaptogens.
Negative Health Outcomes of Pseudoscience
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(00:42:46)
  • Key Takeaway: Using alternative treatments like adaptogens can be a net health negative, potentially delaying proven medical care.
  • Summary: The discussion touches on studies showing that people using alternative treatments often have lower life expectancies, possibly due to delaying proven treatments or the supplements interfering with prescribed medications.
Trend of Earlier Menarche
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(00:47:04)
  • Key Takeaway: A large study confirms that the average age of menarche (first period) is decreasing, and it is taking longer for periods to become regular.
  • Summary: Kara presents findings from the Apple Women’s Health Study showing that the average age of menarche has dropped significantly between cohorts born in the 1950s and the 2000s, and regularity is taking longer to achieve.
Factors Influencing Early Puberty
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(00:53:36)
  • Key Takeaway: Childhood obesity accounts for about half the variance in earlier menarche, but diet, stress, and environmental factors are also suspected contributors.
  • Summary: The hosts discuss potential causes for the trend, noting that while BMI explains a significant portion, researchers are also investigating dietary patterns, psychological stress, and endocrine-disrupting chemicals.
Sponsor Break: Aura Frames
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(00:57:33)
  • Key Takeaway: Aura Frames are recommended as a thoughtful gift, especially for Father’s Day.
  • Summary: The hosts take a break to advertise Aura Frames, describing them as an unexpected and desirable gift, easy to set up, and a great way to view cherished photos.
Colonel Nell’s Alien Claims
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(00:59:00)
  • Key Takeaway: Former Army Colonel Carl Nell claims aliens exist and are interacting with humans, asserting ‘zero doubt’ based on information from high-level sources.
  • Summary: The discussion focuses on the claims made by former U.S. Army officer Carl Nell at the SALT Conference regarding the existence of non-human intelligence (NHI) interacting with humanity, noting his high-level military background and involvement with UAP legislation.
Reasons for UAP Secrecy
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(01:03:51)
  • Key Takeaway: Nell provided six reasons for the government withholding information on UAPs, with national security being the primary one.
  • Summary: Nell outlined six reasons for the public not being told about NHI/UAPs: national security, lack of a plan, societal disruptions, non-public agreements, covering up misdeeds, and organizational intransigence. He stressed that national security supersedes the others.
Nell’s View on David Grusch
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(01:05:13)
  • Key Takeaway: Nell supports David Grusch’s claims about the government possessing crashed extraterrestrial craft and non-human bodies, calling Grusch’s characterization ‘beyond reproach.’
  • Summary: The hosts discuss Nell’s endorsement of David Grusch’s assertions regarding government possession of non-human craft and biologics, while noting the continued lack of physical evidence presented publicly.
Compartmentalization of Beliefs
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(01:07:14)
  • Key Takeaway: Highly intelligent and respectable individuals can still hold profoundly wrong beliefs, highlighting that critical thinking is a skill separate from general intelligence.
  • Summary: The hosts analyze why a respected figure like Nell might fall for unsubstantiated claims, suggesting it relates to a lack of critical thinking skills or that UFO beliefs function as a ‘sacred cow’ or religion for some.
Delusion by Proxy
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(01:10:00)
  • Key Takeaway: Superficial reasonableness in presentation can fool people into accepting delusional content, leading to a ‘delusion by proxy.’
  • Summary: The discussion uses an example of a man claiming time travel to Lincoln’s era to illustrate how a well-spoken, non-drooling person can still be delusional or a con artist, confusing presentation with factual validity.
Metasurface Breakthrough for Infrared Vision
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(01:14:38)
  • Key Takeaway: Researchers achieved record efficiency in converting shortwave infrared light directly to visible light using a new lithium niobate metasurface.
  • Summary: Bob introduces a breakthrough by Australian and German researchers using resonant dielectric metasurfaces made of lithium niobate and silicon oxide to convert shortwave infrared light to visible light with high efficiency, potentially improving surveillance and medical imaging.
Metamaterials and Future Applications
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(01:25:41)
  • Key Takeaway: The control over light offered by metamaterials suggests future applications ranging from advanced remote sensing to speculative concepts like earthquake diversion.
  • Summary: The hosts express excitement over the potential of metamaterials, noting that this technology, which controls light at the nanoscale, could revolutionize many fields, even leading to science fiction-like applications.
Who’s That Noisy Segment
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(01:27:44)
  • Key Takeaway: The previous week’s noisy sound was revealed to be pendulum music created by controlled feedback from swinging microphones over speakers.
  • Summary: The hosts review listener guesses for the previous ‘Who’s That Noisy,’ reveal the correct answer (pendulum music by Steve Reich), and play a new sound for listeners to guess.
SGU Live Show Announcements
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(01:32:00)
  • Key Takeaway: The Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe is planning a live show in Chicago on August 17th to celebrate their 1000th episode.
  • Summary: Jay announces details for two Chicago extravaganzas, including an afternoon show on August 17th to test new bits, and the main 1000th episode celebration on August 18th, encouraging patrons to help curate the best moments.
Corrections and Pyramid Beliefs
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(01:34:44)
  • Key Takeaway: The hosts correct a megabytes/megabits error and address feedback regarding the racist pedigree associated with the belief that aliens built ancient structures like the pyramids.
  • Summary: The segment begins with a correction on data transfer speeds. Then, the hosts defend their previous comments on the ‘aliens built the pyramids’ trope, explaining that the belief has undeniable racist origins rooted in colonial attitudes that sought to erase indigenous accomplishments.
Science or Fiction: GMOs
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(01:46:54)
  • Key Takeaway: The panel correctly identified the pink glow pineapple as science, while the photosynthesis-enhanced poplar tree was the fiction.
  • Summary: Steve presents three GMO-themed news items: a photosynthesis-enhanced poplar tree, a pink glow pineapple, and glowing petunias. The panel debates which is fake, ultimately choosing the poplar tree as fiction (though the petunias were slightly altered in the description).
Enhanced Tree Field Trials
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(01:58:36)
  • Key Takeaway: Genetically enhanced trees showed 53% efficiency gains in the lab and are now in field trials.
  • Summary: Discussion of the 53% sequestration rate in lab trials for genetically modified trees and the ongoing field trials comparing them to regular poplars on a large lot.
Fast-Growing Trees and Climate
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(01:58:58)
  • Key Takeaway: Fast-growing trees are crucial for maximizing carbon sequestration to combat climate change.
  • Summary: The conventional wisdom about planting trees is discussed, emphasizing that faster growth rates are now prioritized for biomass accumulation to mitigate climate change.
Photosynthesis Enhancement Mechanism
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(02:00:02)
  • Key Takeaway: The genetic technology bypasses photorespiration and may involve engineering C4 carbon fixation pathways.
  • Summary: Explaining that the 53% efficiency increase comes from bypassing photorespiration and potentially transferring C4 pathways into C3 plants.
Productivity Applications of Technology
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(02:01:36)
  • Key Takeaway: The enhanced photosynthesis technology could significantly boost the productivity of food crops like wheat.
  • Summary: The hosts discuss whether the biomass enhancement applies to fruit and crop biomass, noting that a 50% growth increase in wheat would be highly valuable.
Defense of GMO Technology
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(02:02:18)
  • Key Takeaway: Anti-GMO propaganda is factually incorrect, and GMO adoption is primarily driven by farmers’ business decisions.
  • Summary: A brief but strong defense of GMO technology, arguing against common misinformation and pointing out that farmers choose to use these seeds because they benefit their business.
George Box Quote on Models
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(02:03:28)
  • Key Takeaway: All scientific models are inherently wrong; their utility is determined by how wrong they can be while remaining useful.
  • Summary: Evan shares a quote from George Box about the nature of scientific models, leading to a discussion that science deals in useful, predictive models rather than absolute truths.
Podcast Sign-off and Credits
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(02:05:16)
  • Key Takeaway: The hosts conclude the episode and direct listeners to support the Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe.
  • Summary: The hosts thank the audience, sign off for the week, provide website and support information (Patreon), and transition into an advertisement.