The Big Picture

‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ Burns Bright Before Flaming Out. Plus: Best Picture Power Rankings and the Oscar Short Lists!

December 19, 2025

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  • The Academy Awards telecast moving to YouTube starting in 2029 is viewed as a logical step that increases global accessibility, despite potentially lowering the show's prestige. 
  • The hosts found James Cameron's *Avatar: Fire and Ash* technically breathtaking but criticized its slow pacing, repetitive plot points, and lack of narrative novelty compared to previous installments. 
  • The initial Oscar shortlist announcements suggest that *Sinners* and *Wicked for Good* are strong contenders, while the absence of *J. Kelly* in casting and cinematography signals trouble for that film, and *Surat* is surprisingly showing strength in the casting shortlist. 
  • The hosts express significant confusion and disapproval regarding the shortlist for Best Original Song, noting the exclusion of major artists and the presence of only one K-pop entry. 
  • The Best Picture Power Rankings were updated, showing 'One Battle After Another' holding the number one spot, while 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' dropped out of the top ten due to collective industry sentiment rather than just the hosts' personal reactions. 
  • The discussion on the Best Cinematography shortlist revealed surprise over the exclusion of major films like 'No Other Choice' while noting the inclusion of 'F1' and 'Surat' as oddities. 

Segments

Oscars Broadcast Moves to YouTube
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(00:01:48)
  • Key Takeaway: The Academy Awards telecast will move from ABC to YouTube starting with the 101st ceremony in 2029, a four-year license deal.
  • Summary: The move to YouTube is considered logical for the Academy, offering free, centralized access globally, which supports the increasingly international nature of the Best Picture race. This shift commodifies the apparatus around the Oscars, potentially bringing events like the Governor’s Ball to the platform live. A potential downside is the perceived lowering of prestige by associating the event with YouTube’s short-form consumption culture.
Spielberg’s ‘Disclosure Day’ Trailer
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(00:12:46)
  • Key Takeaway: Steven Spielberg’s upcoming alien invasion thriller, Disclosure Day, starring Emily Blunt and Josh O’Connor, features thrilling action but some questionable CGI moments.
  • Summary: The trailer for Disclosure Day confirms it is an alien invasion thriller, continuing Spielberg’s history with first-contact stories. The sound design in the opening moments, particularly affecting Emily Blunt’s voice, was noted as incredible. While most practical effects looked great, specific CGI shots, like one involving a girl and a bird, were criticized for looking artificial.
Reviewing ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’
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(00:16:05)
  • Key Takeaway: The third Avatar film, Avatar: Fire and Ash, delivers undeniable technical mastery but suffers from narrative repetition and pacing issues due to its excessive length.
  • Summary: The film is criticized for retreading plot points from the first installment and being bogged down by its 3-hour, 14-minute runtime, causing significant drag after an initial high-octane action sequence. The narrative focuses heavily on Jake Sully’s struggles as a father, making it feel autobiographical for Cameron, but key characters like Kate Winslet’s are sidelined until the climax. The hosts believe this installment lacks the transformative, never-before-seen quality of the first two Avatar films.
Oscar Shortlist Reactions
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(00:44:17)
  • Key Takeaway: The initial Oscar shortlists reveal Surat’s surprising strength with five shortlistings, while J. Kelly’s absence in key technical categories suggests the film is likely out of the running.
  • Summary: The first-ever Best Casting shortlist included Surat, which was unexpected given its non-traditional Academy appeal, while J. Kelly failed to secure nominations in casting or cinematography, indicating a likely Best Picture miss. Searchlight Pictures’ streak of having a Best Picture nominee appears to be broken this year, as The Testament of Anne Lee and Rental Family received no shortlistings. Neon is heavily represented in the International Feature shortlist, signaling a strong push for their festival acquisitions like Surat.
Best Original Song Shortlist Critique
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(00:58:19)
  • Key Takeaway: The Best Original Song shortlist is deemed ‘bad’ and ‘stupid’ due to the exclusion of major songs like Dua Lipa’s and the presence of only one K-pop entry.
  • Summary: The hosts criticize the Best Original Song shortlist, highlighting the absence of Dua Lipa and the limited K-pop representation. They also note inconsistencies in eligibility rulings, specifically questioning why ‘Testament of Ann Lee’ was ineligible based on hymns while songs from ‘Wicked for Good’ were included. The host expresses preference for ‘I Lied to You’ from ‘Sinners’ and Nine Inch Nails’ ‘As Alive as You Need Me to Be’.
Best Score Shortlist Review
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(01:00:06)
  • Key Takeaway: The Best Score shortlist features 20 films, including ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ and Laura Cartman’s score for ‘Captain America: Brave New World,’ which was previously nominated for ‘American Fiction.’
  • Summary: The Best Score shortlist contains 20 entries, prompting a brief look into composer Laura Cartman’s previous Oscar nomination for ‘American Fiction.’ The hosts note that ‘Hamnet’ being shortlisted suggests that previously used music from Max Richter did not disqualify it from consideration. The segment concludes with the hosts identifying ‘Nuremberg’ and ‘Sinners’ versus ‘One Battle’ as potential contenders in this category.
Best Picture Power Rankings Update
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(01:02:15)
  • Key Takeaway: The November 24th Best Picture Power Rankings placed ‘One Battle After Another’ at number one, followed by ‘Hamnet’ and ‘Sinners,’ with ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ ranked eighth.
  • Summary: The hosts review their previous Best Picture rankings, noting that several films like ‘The Testament of Anne Lee’ and ‘A House of Dynamite’ are likely out of contention. They elevate ‘Weapons’ to Tier One based on shortlist presence in casting, alongside ‘Wicked for Good,’ ‘No Other Choice,’ ‘F1,’ and ‘Song Sung Blue.’ The hosts acknowledge that ‘One Battle After Another’ might be taken for granted, potentially opening the door for ‘Sinners’ to rise.
Final Power Ranking Adjustments
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(01:07:08)
  • Key Takeaway: The final updated Best Picture Power Rankings place ‘One Battle After Another’ at #1, ‘Sinners’ at #2, and ‘Hamnet’ at #3, with ‘Surat’ making a bold entry at #10.
  • Summary: The hosts finalize their updated rankings, confirming ‘One Battle After Another’ at number one despite potential overconfidence, and placing ‘Sinners’ at number two due to strong ensemble and below-the-line indicators. They agree that ‘Frankenstein’ is likely to secure more total nominations than ‘Sentimental Value,’ despite ‘Sentimental Value’ being favored for a Screenplay nod. ‘Surat’ is added to the tenth spot as a bold choice based on its shortlist presence.
Cinematic/Box Office Award Predictions
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(01:15:37)
  • Key Takeaway: The hosts predict ‘Sinners’ will win the Golden Globe for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement in the Drama category, and ‘One Battle After Another’ in Comedy, while ‘Zootopia 2’ is favored for the overall achievement award.
  • Summary: The hosts review the nominees for the Golden Globe’s Cinematic and Box Office Achievement Award, including ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash,’ ‘Wicked for Good,’ and ‘F1.’ They predict ‘Sinners’ and ‘One Battle After Another’ will win their respective genre categories at the Globes. The hosts debate whether a Globe win in this category influences Best Picture voting, noting that Oscar nominations voting begins shortly after the ceremony.
Future Episode Preview
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(01:21:11)
  • Key Takeaway: The next episode of ‘The Big Picture’ will focus on ‘Ella McKay’ and ‘Is This Thing On?’, alongside a list of 10 overlooked and underseen movies for listeners to watch over the holidays.
  • Summary: The next episode will feature strong opinions on ‘Ella McKay,’ which opened to historically low box office numbers but is being heavily memed online, and ‘Is This Thing On?’. The hosts plan to balance this discussion by presenting a list of ten overlooked and underseen films of the year for the audience’s holiday viewing consideration.