The Big Picture

The 2026 Oscar Nominations: Snubs, Surprises, and WTFs

January 22, 2026

Key Takeaways Copied to clipboard!

  • The 2026 Oscar nominations are historic, marked by 'Sinners' shattering the all-time nominations record (16 nominations mentioned) and a generally 'kooky' but interesting collection of picks by the Academy. 
  • The Best Picture lineup is top-heavy with six films receiving a high number of nominations, featuring the surprising inclusion of 'F1' (which Sean Fennessey had predicted despite historical precedent against multiple non-English language films) and the notable absence of 'Wicked for Good' and 'Testament of Anne Lee'. 
  • The Best Actress category featured a major snub with Chase Infinity missing out in favor of Kate Hudson for 'Song Sung Blue', while Best Supporting Actress saw a positive surprise with Elle Fanning's nomination for 'Begonia'. 
  • The Best Actor race is considered potentially one of the best in Academy Awards history, featuring strong performances from Michael B. Jordan, Timothy Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio, Ethan Hawk, and Wagner Mora. 
  • The film *Sinners* shattered the all-time nomination record with 16 nominations, which the hosts suggest might lead to some backlash or discourse fatigue despite its craft recognition. 
  • The hosts predict *One Battle After Another* will win Best Picture, while acknowledging the strong possibility of *Sinners* winning the most total awards due to its high number of nominations. 

Segments

Initial Reactions and Nomination Count
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(00:01:20)
  • Key Takeaway: The 2026 Oscar nominations are characterized by ‘Sinners’ achieving a record 16 nominations and a generally ‘kooky’ but interesting collection of picks.
  • Summary: The hosts opened ‘The Big Picture’ episode ‘The 2026 Oscar Nominations: Snubs, Surprises, and WTFs’ by noting the historic nature of the nominations. ‘Sinners’ secured 16 nominations, setting an all-time record, even accounting for the addition of the Casting category. The overall feeling was that the nominations were interesting and slightly unpredictable.
Top-Heavy Nomination Grouping
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(00:02:36)
  • Key Takeaway: Six films received a high number of nominations, with ‘One Battle After Another’ earning 13, indicating a top-heavy race.
  • Summary: The nominations featured a heavy grouping of six films with high counts, followed by ‘One Battle After Another’ with 13 nominations. ‘Frankenstein’ and ‘Marty Supreme’ each received nine nominations, while ‘Sentimental Value’ and ‘Hamnet’ both secured eight. This concentration suggests a clear tier of frontrunners established since December.
Best Picture Nominees Analysis
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(00:04:35)
  • Key Takeaway: The Best Picture nominees included the expected top tier plus ‘Begonia’, while ‘F1’ secured a spot despite historical precedent against multiple non-English language films.
  • Summary: The ten Best Picture nominees included nine films expected in the race, with ‘Begonia’ being the addition, replacing films like ‘Weapons’ in Sean Fennessey’s final prediction. The inclusion of ‘F1’ was noted as a significant moment, as the Academy has historically not nominated three non-English language films for Best Picture.
Best Picture Snubs and Surprises
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(00:10:51)
  • Key Takeaway: The biggest complete snub in Best Picture was the Palm d’Or winner, ‘It Was Just an Accident’, while ‘Wicked for Good’ also missed out entirely.
  • Summary: The Palm d’Or winner, ‘It Was Just an Accident’, failed to secure a Best Picture nomination, which the hosts found sad despite its Original Screenplay nod. ‘Wicked for Good’ was completely snubbed, missing nominations in key categories it won the previous year, including Song and acting nods for its leads. ‘No Other Choice’ and ‘Blue Moon’ also failed to make the final ten.
Best Actress Snub and Supporting Actress Field
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(00:15:45)
  • Key Takeaway: Chase Infinity’s absence from Best Actress, in favor of Kate Hudson, was a major snub, while Best Supporting Actress featured Elle Fanning and Inga Ipsa Lilias for ‘Sentimental Value’.
  • Summary: Chase Infinity’s exclusion from Best Actress, despite her critical role in ‘One Battle After Another’, was highlighted as a significant disappointment, especially given Kate Hudson’s nomination. The hosts felt this overlooked the strength of the female performances in ‘One Battle After Another’. Best Supporting Actress included two nominees from ‘Sentimental Value’ and Elle Fanning’s nomination for ‘Begonia’.
Best Supporting Actor Dynamics
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(00:33:42)
  • Key Takeaway: Best Supporting Actor is seen as a strong category, potentially leading to a split vote between the two ‘Sinners’ nominees, Stellan Skarsgaard and Del Roy Lindo.
  • Summary: Del Roy Lindo’s nomination was a pleasant surprise, recognized for his strong body of work despite missing precursor nominations. The category is viewed as a contest between Jacob Alordi, Sean Penn, and the two ‘Sinners’ actors, Stellan Skarsgaard and Del Roy Lindo, whose shared film might split their potential votes.
Original Score Controversy
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(00:26:49)
  • Key Takeaway: The Original Score committee is on notice for snubbing Daniel Lopatten (‘Marty Supreme’) and electronic music scores like ‘Challengers’ and ‘Surat’ in favor of classical styles.
  • Summary: Daniel Lopatten’s score for ‘Marty Supreme’ was snubbed, seemingly in favor of Jerskin Fendrix for ‘Begonia’, indicating the voting body leans toward classical music over electronic scores. This follows the previous year’s snub of Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for ‘Challengers’. The hosts expressed strong disapproval of the committee’s choices in this category.
Documentary Branch Confusion
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(00:29:34)
  • Key Takeaway: The Documentary Feature race is highly unpredictable, marked by the absence of Laura Poitras’ ‘Cover-Up’ and the Ukrainian film ‘20,000 Meters to Andrivka’.
  • Summary: The Documentary branch proved difficult to predict, with the hosts admitting they were largely wrong and haven’t seen all nominees. Laura Poitras’ film about Seymour Hirsch missing out was noted as unfortunate, fitting a pattern of the branch overlooking portraits of individuals. ‘The Perfect Neighbor’ is considered the frontrunner due to high viewership on Netflix.
Original Song Category Breakdown
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(00:42:01)
  • Key Takeaway: The Original Song category is deemed ‘broken’ due to the nomination of ‘Sweet Dreams of Joy’ from the opera documentary ‘Viva Verdi’ over more mainstream contenders like ‘Highest to Lowest’.
  • Summary: The hosts strongly criticized the Original Song nominations, calling the category ‘fucking broken’ after discovering a nomination for a song from the documentary ‘Viva Verdi’. ‘Golden’ is expected to win as it is one of the few songs truly written for the film and achieved mainstream penetration. ‘Highest to Lowest’ from the Spike Lee film was surprisingly absent.
International Feature & Makeup/Hairstyling
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(00:47:31)
  • Key Takeaway: Tom Cruise strongly advocated for the Japanese entry in International Feature, which is currently in a limited theatrical run.
  • Summary: Tom Cruise has been a vocal supporter of the Japanese International Feature entry, hosting screenings and expressing his admiration for the film. Other recognized films in Makeup and Hairstyling included Frankenstein and Sinners. Marty Supreme was not recognized in makeup but secured a nomination in costume design.
Costume Design Surprises
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(00:48:09)
  • Key Takeaway: Avatar Fire and Ash received an unexpected nomination in Costume Design, prompting speculation about what specific elements were recognized.
  • Summary: Miyako Belizi was nominated for her costume work on Marty Supreme. The nomination for Avatar Fire and Ash was deemed odd, leading to a humorous discussion about whether the recognition was for dressing or undressing the character Varang. The hosts also briefly touched upon the concept of recognizing machinery, like Edie Falco’s power loader, in design categories.
Best Actor Race Analysis
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(00:49:34)
  • Key Takeaway: The Best Actor category is highly regarded, featuring Michael B. Jordan, Timothy Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio, Ethan Hawk, and Wagner Mora, with Wagner Mora being the host’s gut pick.
  • Summary: The Best Actor race is lauded as potentially the best ever, featuring five strong performances. One host is leaning toward Wagner Mora based on gut feeling and advocacy from Brazil, while acknowledging Timothy Chalamet’s advantage in precursor events like the SAG Awards. The discussion drew parallels between Chalamet’s career trajectory and Paul Newman’s early career, where early recognition was missed.
One Battle After Another Dominance
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(00:54:28)
  • Key Takeaway: One Battle After Another secured 13 nominations, the third most ever, solidifying its position as the likely Best Picture winner.
  • Summary: Despite not being heavily discussed in the preceding categories, One Battle After Another earned 13 nominations, positioning it strongly for Best Picture. The hosts do not anticipate this strong showing will be undermined by inattention leading up to the ceremony.
Best Actress and Screenplay Predictions
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(00:54:59)
  • Key Takeaway: Jesse Buckley is considered the likely frontrunner in Best Actress, while the Adapted Screenplay category is predicted to be a lock for PTA’s One Battle After Another.
  • Summary: The Best Actress category features Jesse Buckley as the anointed frontrunner, with Rose Byrne being noted as a potential dark horse if her film had a larger box office impact. The Adapted Screenplay nominees were perfectly predicted, with the hosts strongly believing PTA will win for One Battle After Another, potentially leading to sweeps in Picture and Director as well.
Original Screenplay and Below-the-Line
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(00:57:52)
  • Key Takeaway: The Original Screenplay award is expected to go to Sinners, though one host advocates for Marty Supreme to secure a deserving win for Ryan Kugler.
  • Summary: The Original Screenplay nominees include Blue Moon, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners, with Sinners being the favorite. The hosts expressed a strong desire for Ryan Kugler to win for Marty Supreme in this category, viewing it as the coolest award often recognizing favored filmmakers. Cinematography nominees were also perfectly predicted, with Darius Condry’s three nominations (Evida, Bardo, Marty Supreme) noted as unusual.
Production Design and Editing
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(00:59:55)
  • Key Takeaway: Hannah Beekler is the favorite for Production Design for Sinners, despite one host stumping for Jack Fisk’s work on Marty Supreme.
  • Summary: Jack Fisk received a nomination for Production Design on Marty Supreme, though Hannah Beekler for Sinners is considered the leader, having previously won for Black Panther. F1 and Marty Supreme both landed nominations in Film Editing, with F1’s inclusion being a surprise to one host.
Final Tally and Takeaways
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(01:02:07)
  • Key Takeaway: Sinners is projected to win the most awards overall due to its 16 nominations, potentially taking home five trophies.
  • Summary: The slate of Best Picture nominees is generally considered good, though F1’s inclusion is described as ‘kooky’ and a fun moment for the Academy. One host projects One Battle After Another to win three major awards, but predicts Sinners will ultimately win the most awards, possibly five, including Score, Cinematography, and potentially Original Screenplay.