The Big Picture

The Oscar Noms Mailbag: Is ‘Sinners’ vs. ‘One Battle After Another’ a Race? Plus: Best Picture Power Rankings.

January 28, 2026

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  • The hosts noted that the recent Oscar nominations for *Sinners* (16 nominations) suggest it now has a legitimate chance to win Best Picture over the perceived frontrunner, *One Battle After Another* (13 nominations), due to the preferential ballot system. 
  • The poor box office performance of *The Bone Temple* ($21 million domestically after two weeks) casts significant doubt on the likelihood of a third film in the *28 Years Later* series happening. 
  • The surprising snubs of Park Chan Wook's *No Other Choice* and the late release timing of *The Testament of Ann Lee* are cited as potential reasons for their lack of major Oscar recognition, despite critical acclaim. 
  • The hosts debate why Leonardo DiCaprio might not win his Oscar despite being very good in his film, suggesting the attention for that movie has dispersed to co-stars or that the film is not primarily viewed as a performance piece. 
  • The hosts agree that watching the Oscars requires silence for them professionally, contrasting sharply with listener questions about hosting social Oscar viewing parties, which should include gamification like ballots and elimination processes. 
  • The expansion of Best Picture nominations to ten is seen as successfully including more widely seen films, but the hosts are hesitant to expand acting categories to ten, preferring new categories like 'Breakthrough Performance' or 'Ensemble' instead. 
  • The hosts finalized their updated Best Picture power rankings following the Oscar nominations, placing "One Battle After Another" at number one and "Sinners" at number two. 
  • The hosts debated the relative strengths of "Marty Supreme" versus "Sentimental Value" for the middle ranks, ultimately favoring "Sentimental Value" due to its higher number of acting nominations. 
  • The conversation concluded with the hosts noting that the BAFTA nominations and ceremony remain the next major events influencing the Oscar race before a planned breather in Oscar talk until March. 

Segments

Podcast Platform Change Announcement
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(00:01:50)
  • Key Takeaway: The Big Picture podcast is now exclusively available on Netflix for viewing, though existing audio feeds on Spotify, Apple, and Pocketcast remain unchanged.
  • Summary: The show announced its new licensing deal with Netflix, which now hosts the video version of the podcast. Listeners watching on YouTube will no longer find new episodes there. Existing audio subscribers on platforms like Spotify and Apple are unaffected by this change.
Weekend Box Office Recap
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(00:03:58)
  • Key Takeaway: A nationwide storm depressed weekend box office numbers, leading to Avatar: Fire and Ash being dethroned after five weeks atop the chart.
  • Summary: The weekend box office was negatively impacted by severe weather closing hundreds of theaters. Avatar: Fire and Ash lost the top spot after a five-week run. The sequel The Bone Temple underperformed significantly, dropping 70% and raising doubts about a third installment.
Upcoming New Releases Preview
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(00:07:17)
  • Key Takeaway: Upcoming releases include Sam Raimi’s Send Help, a new Jason Statham action film titled Shelter, and the documentary Melania which is reportedly getting a limited release.
  • Summary: The hosts preview several new films debuting, noting that many are strategically placed during a quiet period. Shelter, starring Jason Statham, involves a reclusive man rescuing a girl on a remote island. Melania is expected to have a more limited theatrical run than initially anticipated, financed by Amazon.
Oscar Snubs: No Other Choice
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(00:16:18)
  • Key Takeaway: The Academy snub of Park Chan Wook’s No Other Choice is perplexing given Bong Joon-ho’s success, possibly stemming from WGA blowback or Neon prioritizing Surat in the International Feature category.
  • Summary: Listeners questioned why No Other Choice failed to secure nominations despite being highly acclaimed by many critics. The film’s formal inventiveness may have alienated some traditional critics, leading to a lack of momentum. Its box office success in the US contrasts sharply with other nominated Neon titles.
Oscar Snubs: The Testament of Ann Lee
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(00:23:55)
  • Key Takeaway: The late acquisition by Searchlight and the film’s inherently strange, non-traditional structure likely prevented The Testament of Ann Lee from securing nominations, despite Amanda Seiford’s acclaimed performance.
  • Summary: The film was acquired too late in the festival season to build a proper awards campaign momentum. Its unusual musical elements and contemplative ending likely deterred voters looking for more traditional prestige fare. Seiford’s performance is considered a potential historical snub due to the film’s timing and nature.
Sinners vs. One Battle Best Picture Race
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(00:35:45)
  • Key Takeaway: The overwhelming 16 nominations for Sinners gives it a legitimate shot at winning Best Picture over One Battle After Another due to the preferential ballot system.
  • Summary: The sheer volume of nominations for Sinners signals deep support across the entire voting body, making it a serious contender despite One Battle After Another being the hosts’ initial favorite. The preferential ballot means that even if One Battle is the first choice for many, Sinners could benefit from second and third-place rankings.
Best Actor Race Analysis
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(00:46:00)
  • Key Takeaway: Timothée Chalamet’s nomination over Leonardo DiCaprio is attributed to Chalamet’s role reading as a more ‘classical Oscar’ performance, while DiCaprio’s performance was more comedic and less aggressively campaigned.
  • Summary: Both performances are considered excellent, but Chalamet’s role as a striver aligns better with traditional Oscar narratives. DiCaprio, a major star, is not campaigning as intensely as Chalamet, whose momentum is building. The Academy appears to favor recognizing younger stars like Chalamet over established veterans like DiCaprio in this instance.
DiCaprio Oscar Snub Analysis
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(00:52:24)
  • Key Takeaway: Dispersed acting attention and the cultural import of One Battle After Another may be hindering Leonardo DiCaprio’s Best Actor chances.
  • Summary: The hosts speculate that attention for One Battle After Another has focused on Benicio del Toro and Tiana Taylor, potentially diverting focus from DiCaprio. They suggest the film is being recognized more for PTA’s vision and cinematography than for individual performances. DiCaprio’s later release date and the film’s status as a hit are also cited as factors influencing the race.
Hosting Oscar Viewing Parties
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(00:55:00)
  • Key Takeaway: Professional Oscar watchers require absolute silence during the broadcast, but home parties should be gamified with ballots and an elimination process.
  • Summary: The hosts, viewing the Oscars for work, insist on no talking during the telecast, a condition they jokingly extend to their producer, Jack. For home parties, they recommend including ballots tallied during the show and suggest a fun elimination game where guests are ‘voted out.’ A crucial logistical tip is confirming the correct, earlier start time for the ceremony.
Best Picture Nom Overlap Analysis
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(01:02:28)
  • Key Takeaway: The concentration of five films across multiple Best Picture and category nominations is attributed to the highly skilled awards campaigning ecosystem, not the 10-nominee slot itself.
  • Summary: The prevalence of the same five films across multiple categories is linked to the industry’s ability to identify contenders early, sometimes as early as Sundance. The 10-nominee slot is defended for bringing more seen movies into the conversation, even if the top contenders dominate the five-nominee categories like acting. The inclusion of blockbusters like F1 is viewed as a positive diversification of the Best Picture slate.
Expanding Acting Categories Ideas
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(01:06:54)
  • Key Takeaway: To recognize more performances, the hosts suggest adding a ‘Breakthrough Performance’ award or an ‘Ensemble’ award, rather than expanding existing categories to ten slots.
  • Summary: Adding a ‘Breakthrough Performance’ award could recognize overlooked talents like Chase Infinity, while a dedicated ‘Ensemble’ award is proposed as a way to honor group work distinctly from the Casting Director category. The hosts reject splitting acting categories by genre due to concerns over category fraud, referencing the ambiguity of One Battle After Another’s genre.
Personal Unrecognized Performance Noms
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(01:13:43)
  • Key Takeaway: Elizabeth Olsen in The Assessment and Josh O’Connor in Wake Up Deadman are cited as overlooked performances that would make the hosts’ personal nominations.
  • Summary: Elizabeth Olsen’s committed performance in the overlooked Hulu film The Assessment was nominated despite the movie vanishing after its festival run. Josh O’Connor’s work in Wake Up Deadman is highlighted as deserving recognition for continuing his growing stardom, even though he received minimal precursor buzz. Ray Fiennes in Bone Temple and Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love were the hosts’ other personal picks.
Update on Drunk Movie Viewing
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(01:17:07)
  • Key Takeaway: The hosts tentatively schedule a midday viewing of the film Mercy for a future report, despite one host’s past negative experience with 4DX seating while pregnant.
  • Summary: Bailey requested an update on the plan to get drunk and see Mercy in 4DX, prompting a search for suitable showtimes. The hosts noted that 4DX can be uncomfortable, referencing a past negative experience during a viewing of The Fall Guy. They settled on a (12:05) PM showing of Mercy the following day for the planned inebriated review.
Best Needle Drop Nominations Hypothetical
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(01:20:43)
  • Key Takeaway: The best needle drops of the year include Steely Dan’s ‘Dirty Work’ and ‘American Girl’ from One Battle After Another, and George Harrison’s ‘Beware of Darkness’ from Weapons.
  • Summary: The hosts propose a hypothetical ‘Best Needle Drop’ award, noting that PTA is renowned for his curated soundtracks, including three strong contenders from One Battle After Another. Other standout tracks mentioned are George Harrison’s song in Weapons and the use of Katy Perry’s ‘Firework’ in Eddington, which Ari Aster reportedly chose over ‘Empire State of Mind’.
Sequel Oscar Fate Prediction
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(01:23:56)
  • Key Takeaway: Dune Messiah is unlikely to receive the same level of Best Picture recognition as Dune Part 2 due to the polarizing nature of its source material and strong competition next year.
  • Summary: The Academy often shows disinterest in sequels, as seen with Wicked for Good and Avatar: Fire and Ash, which were perceived as being cut in half compared to their predecessors. While Dune Part 2 received a Best Picture nod, the third installment faces a challenging landscape, potentially including a Christopher Nolan and a Steven Spielberg summer blockbuster. Return of the King is cited as a rare exception where a trilogy conclusion achieved massive Oscar success.
Eddington’s Lack of Awards Traction
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(01:27:37)
  • Key Takeaway: Eddington was never designed to cater to the Oscars, as its provocative, nihilistic commentary on America is inherently unlovable by the voting body.
  • Summary: The film’s success lies in its refusal to pull punches, which made it ineligible for Oscar nominations, as a nominated version would likely be too compromised. The hosts suggest that if Eddington had premiered at a different festival than Cannes, its resonance might have been stronger, tapping into current American anger. However, its self-loathing tone likely limits its international appeal compared to more straightforward narratives.
Early Oscar Night Fate Indicators
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(01:32:56)
  • Key Takeaway: Wins for Delroy Lindo or Woon Me Masaka in the early supporting acting categories would signal a strong night for One Battle After Another.
  • Summary: The acting categories, typically presented early, serve as the best initial indicator of a film’s fate, as Best Picture winners often secure at least one acting award. A sweep in both supporting categories for One Battle After Another would effectively end the Best Picture race immediately. The hosts note that recent Best Picture winners have consistently been paired with an acting award.
Fall Festival Influence Decline
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(01:35:27)
  • Key Takeaway: The influence of traditional fall festivals like Telluride is slightly waning as major studios increasingly opt for direct releases or premiere films at Cannes.
  • Summary: Fewer Best Picture nominees originated from the major fall festivals this year, suggesting a shift in premiere strategy, exemplified by One Battle After Another skipping the circuit entirely. Netflix’s strong ties to Venice mean that festival energy is being pulled toward the earlier European premieres. Frankenstein’s momentum, for instance, only truly built after its Toronto screening, not Telluride.
Favorite Acceptance Speeches Recalled
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(01:39:27)
  • Key Takeaway: Memorable speeches include Jack Lemmon’s surprised 1974 address acknowledging Oscar discourse and Bong Joon Ho honoring Scorsese and Tarantino.
  • Summary: Jack Lemmon’s 1974 win for Save the Tiger is recalled for his surprising acknowledgment of critics questioning the award’s relevance, stating, ‘I feel good about this.’ Bong Joon Ho’s director win speech, where he recognized Scorsese and Tarantino as part of a lineage, was highlighted as a special moment. The hosts also fondly remember Matt Damon and Ben Affleck’s excited win for Good Will Hunting.
Oscar History Anecdote
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(01:43:20)
  • Key Takeaway: A brief, unrelated memory about Jeff Bridges winning an Academy Award was shared.
  • Summary: The speakers recalled a moment involving Jeff Bridges winning an Academy Award while Jack Nicholson was present. This memory was described as popping into one speaker’s head for an unknown reason. The segment concluded quickly before transitioning to power rankings.
Initial Power Ranking Review
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(01:43:39)
  • Key Takeaway: The hosts acknowledged an error in their previous power rankings regarding the film ‘Begonia’.
  • Summary: A previous omission of ‘Begonia’ from the power rankings was confirmed, despite one host initially believing it was included. The initial list, created on December 19th, predated major awards like the BAFTAs, PGAs, and Golden Globes. ‘Surat’ was included as a ’little treat’ at rank 10 based only on the Oscar shortlist.
Revising Power Ranking Placements
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(01:44:31)
  • Key Takeaway: The hosts adjusted the initial list by swapping ‘Surat’ and ‘It Was Just an Accident’ and placing ‘Begonia’ lower than its initial implied spot.
  • Summary: The speakers agreed to swap ‘Surat’ (F1) for ‘It Was Just an Accident’ in the initial structure, but then debated ‘Begonia’s’ placement, suggesting it belonged around number nine. They established a baseline ranking structure before the official nominations were fully integrated.
Debating Top Spot Future
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(01:45:03)
  • Key Takeaway: The hosts engaged in a hypothetical debate about prioritizing being right versus acknowledging a ‘cooler’ outcome where ‘Sinners’ wins Best Picture.
  • Summary: The speakers froze the current moment in time to discuss the implications if ‘Sinners’ were to win on March 15th. One host admitted that while ‘One Battle After Another’ remained their prediction, ‘Sinners’ winning would be ‘cool.’ The core conflict presented was whether personal conviction (being right) outweighs supporting a more exciting outcome (being cool).
Finalizing Top Two Contenders
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(01:46:01)
  • Key Takeaway: ‘One Battle After Another’ remains the favorite despite facing headwinds from historical Oscar biases against racism and genre films.
  • Summary: The hosts agreed that ‘One Battle After Another’ is number one, acknowledging that historical racism and snobbishness about genre (vampire films) are significant factors working against it. ‘Sinners’ is confirmed as the number two contender, bolstered by its Golden Globes win and its status as a different kind of period film.
Mid-Tier Ranking Justification
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(01:46:36)
  • Key Takeaway: ‘Sentimental Value’ is ranked above ‘Marty Supreme’ due to its superior acting nominations, despite ‘Marty Supreme’ having more below-the-line technical nods.
  • Summary: The ranking for positions four and five was settled by comparing acting nominations versus technical nominations. ‘Sentimental Value’ secured four acting nominations, including Elle Fanning, giving it an edge over ‘Marty Supreme’ which had fewer acting nods but strong production design and editing recognition.
Netflix International Film Discussion
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(01:47:36)
  • Key Takeaway: The hosts questioned Netflix’s strategy regarding international content, specifically noting that a film like ‘Sentimental Value’ might not have been made with a non-Scandinavian lead actress.
  • Summary: The discussion briefly pivoted to Netflix’s production choices, contrasting the likelihood of Netflix making a film with Rachel Kemp versus one starring Renata Reinsva. One host suggested Netflix underestimates its international viewership and subscribership in Scandinavia. They briefly mentioned the new season of ‘Borgen’ as an example of Netflix’s international production.
Finalizing Lower Ranks
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(01:48:22)
  • Key Takeaway: The lower rankings were finalized by confirming ‘Secret Agent’ ranks above ‘Train Dreams’ due to Wagner Moura’s nomination over Joel Edgerton’s snub.
  • Summary: The speakers settled on ‘Secret Agent’ at seven and ‘Train Dreams’ at eight, citing the fact that Wagner Moura received a nomination while Joel Edgerton did not as justification. They then compared the nomination counts for ‘F1’ and ‘Begonia’ (both having four nominations) to determine the final spots.
Determining 9th and 10th Spots
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(01:49:30)
  • Key Takeaway: ‘Begonia’ is placed at number nine and ‘F1’ at number ten based on the hosts’ final assessment of their respective nomination profiles and prior instincts.
  • Summary: The hosts decided to place ‘Begonia’ at nine and ‘F1’ at ten, despite both having four nominations, with ‘F1’ being relegated due to one host’s retrospective belief that they should have predicted it earlier based on its international success. The final decision for the 9/10 spots was made quickly, prioritizing one host’s conviction about ‘F1’s’ international appeal.
Post-Nomination Outlook
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(01:51:12)
  • Key Takeaway: The next major influence on the Oscar race will be the BAFTA nominations and ceremony, after which there will be a brief lull in major award coverage.
  • Summary: The BAFTA nominations on Thursday are identified as the last major event significantly influencing perceptions before the actual BAFTA ceremony. The hosts plan a break from heavy Oscar talk until March, following an Oscar-themed draft in February. They noted that this award season has been relatively ’normal’ so far.