Behind the Bastards

It Could Happen Here Weekly 214

January 10, 2026

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  • The episode is a compilation of the week's *It Could Happen Here* content, beginning with a 2025 Q&A session where hosts share personal anecdotes and discuss media consumption. 
  • The hosts identified the DNC's depressing atmosphere and the left's embrace of conspiracy theories (like the Charlie Kirk assassination narrative) as recent 'jokerifying' moments. 
  • The team reviewed 2025 predictions, noting that Adam, the editor, was most accurate in predicting the separation between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, while the predicted collapse of the Myanmar Junta did not occur. 
  • The U.S. military operation to kidnap Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is viewed as an unprecedented, blatant act of unilateral aggression and dictator-like behavior by the Trump administration, lacking even the pretense of justification seen in past interventions. 
  • The economic fallout from the AI bubble is predicted to lead to contraction and consolidation among AI companies, potentially causing bank failures due to novel financial instruments like collateralized loan obligations based on compute time. 
  • Public opinion polls suggest the military intervention in Venezuela is historically unpopular among Americans across party lines, contrasting sharply with the general acceptance of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars at their outset. 
  • The perceived success of Trump's actions, such as kidnapping President Maduro, will function like a drug, emboldening further dangerous gambles until the regime eventually collapses under its own weight. 
  • The kidnapping of Maduro and subsequent actions are expected to increase global paranoia among dictators, leading to more torture, killings, and a greater push for nuclear weapons as the only perceived security. 
  • CES 2025 reveals that the tech industry's focus has shifted from consumer gadgets to industrial applications and strengthening AI through data collection from wearables, while marketing efforts center on manipulating AI search results and influencers, exemplified by Intuit's unaddressed security vulnerabilities regarding prompt injection attacks on financial data. 
  • The fatal shooting of a woman by an ICE agent in Minneapolis during an anti-ICE protest is presented as the third such incident where DHS claims of the driver intentionally ramming an agent have been proven false by video evidence, occurring less than a mile from where George Floyd was murdered. 
  • The alleged U.S. military action to kidnap Venezuelan President Maduro is followed by a claim from 'President' Trump to seize and control Venezuelan oil revenue, signaling a shift toward openly stated resource-based foreign policy. 
  • The protest ecosystem in response to the Venezuela action is largely captured by established socialist/communist organizations (like PSL) whose focus on membership growth and pamphlet distribution limits the potential for broader, spontaneous anti-imperialist movements. 

Segments

Podcast Introduction and Ads
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(00:00:00)
  • Key Takeaway: Cooler Zone Media subscription offers ad-free listening on Apple Podcasts.
  • Summary: The episode begins with advertisements for Public investing platform and Odoo business software. Robert Evans introduces the episode as a compilation of the week’s It Could Happen Here shows. Listeners are reminded that the Cooler Zone Media subscription provides ad-free access to all shows on Apple Podcasts.
Q&A Kickoff and Personal Stories
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(00:02:48)
  • Key Takeaway: James was gored by a bull, an event he considers funny because the animal was justified in its reaction.
  • Summary: The team begins the Q&A by sharing non-incriminating youth stories, leading to James recounting being gored by a bull, which resulted in broken ribs and a painful manual transmission drive home. Sophie shared a story about ripping her pants in front of her entire eighth-grade class while wearing skinny jeans. Robert described losing his pants while whitewater rafting in the Ganges River in India.
Book and Media Updates
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(01:02:58)
  • Key Takeaway: Robert Evans’ sequel to After the Revolution is currently being edited and nearing completion.
  • Summary: Robert confirmed that the sequel to After the Revolution is finished and currently in the editing phase. Garrison stated that coverage of Canadian politics, particularly Alberta, is planned for the future. The hosts shared recent fiction recommendations, including Children of Time, Winter in Madrid, and Kurt Vonnegut’s Sirens of Titan.
Favorite 2025 Media
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(01:16:27)
  • Key Takeaway: Tim Robinson’s Chair Company is praised for capturing the American conspiracy mindset effectively.
  • Summary: The hosts listed their favorite media from 2025, with Andor season two being highly rated. Mia expressed pride in her episode analyzing spectacle and the successful coverage that helped block a Republican budget attempt to deny Medicaid coverage for trans healthcare. James recommended the book One of the Boys for its depiction of trans femininity and excellent group chat writing.
Media Censorship and Pride
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(01:20:33)
  • Key Takeaway: Cool Zone Media’s operational freedom is currently maintained because the content creators generate profit for iHeartRadio.
  • Summary: Robert stated that Cool Zone Media has not been censored by iHeartRadio because they currently make the network money, which is the best protection in journalism. Garrison highlighted his ‘Dog Whistle Politics’ episode as a proud achievement for its relevance in decoding fascist signaling, contrasting it with overt fascist communication from entities like DHS. Mia was proud of the team’s work stopping the attempt to block Medicaid coverage for trans healthcare.
Jokerification Incidents Review
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(01:27:11)
  • Key Takeaway: The left’s embrace of conspiracy theories following the Charlie Kirk assassination attempt was a significant ‘jokerifying’ moment for the team.
  • Summary: The team identified the inability to attend the DNC for Kamala Harris’s speech as a personal low point. Garrison noted that working on left-wing conspiracy narratives, particularly around the Charlie Kirk event, caused him significant psychological strain. Robert observed a tactical flattening where both the left and right are increasingly adopting previously partisan conspiratorial tactics.
Dual Power and Activism
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(01:33:56)
  • Key Takeaway: The Zapatistas and the PKK/YPG in Rojava represent the most significant modern examples of successful dual power structures.
  • Summary: Mia cited the Zapatistas as the best modern example of dual power due to their adaptability against the Mexican state. Garrison pointed to the Rojava network as an important, larger-scale example of non-state groups mimicking and replacing state functions. The group noted the positive trend of normie liberals realizing the state (police/ICE) cannot be relied upon, leading to increased community safety organizing.
2025 Predictions Review
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(02:05:17)
  • Key Takeaway: The prediction regarding the Musk/Trump breakup was highly accurate, while the predicted collapse of the Myanmar Junta failed to materialize.
  • Summary: Adam, the editor, was credited with the most accurate prediction for the Musk/Trump separation date (May 30th). The prediction that the Myanmar Junta would fall in 2025 was incorrect, as they have rallied substantially. Robert’s prediction that the economy would remain similar to Biden’s while the stock market rose was deemed largely accurate, with AI data center spending being an unforeseen mitigating factor against collapse.
2025 Lone Wolf Violence Trend
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(02:51:44)
  • Key Takeaway: A predictable, escalating series of sloppy, copycat lone wolf assassinations characterized the latter half of 2025, emulating the Shinzo Abe attack.
  • Summary: The trend shifted away from mass mobilizations toward lone wolf attacks, including the assassination of Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman. These attacks often involved perpetrators leaving messages on casings, mimicking earlier events like the United Healthcare CEO assassination. This pattern reflects a predictable cycle where attention-grabbing violence inspires subsequent copycats.
AI Bubble Financial Risks
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(00:57:23)
  • Key Takeaway: Collateralized loan obligations backed by compute time represent a financial derangement potentially exceeding the irrationality of the 2008 housing crisis.
  • Summary: The AI investment bubble might have peaked, leading to the failure or acquisition of major AI companies like OpenAI or Anthropic. Banks are making bad investments using collateralized loan obligations where the underlying asset is compute time. This situation is considered more deranged than 2008, though the underlying asset (compute time vs. houses) offers a potential silver lining for academic access.
Recession Nostalgia and AI Backlash
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(00:59:07)
  • Key Takeaway: Economic recession conditions are already affecting the working class, and a potential market pop could align with 2008 nostalgia, fueling hope for material change.
  • Summary: Some working-class individuals welcome a market pop hoping it forces action on material conditions, even though the stock market has been insulated from the current recession. A market crash could align with 2008 nostalgia cycles, potentially bringing back 2010s hipster aesthetics. There is an emerging backlash among young people against AI use due to its cringe factor and the way it affects communication.
2026 Midterm Election Predictions
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(01:03:27)
  • Key Takeaway: One prediction suggests a massive Democratic victory (D+14) in the midterms, arguing current polling underestimates the scale of anti-Trump sentiment and economic dissatisfaction.
  • Summary: One host predicts a ‘fucking massacre’ for Republicans in the midterms, citing recent shifts like the Miami mayoral win and systematic alienation of Republican bases like farmers. The success of Democrats hinges on maintaining momentum over the next 11 months, especially as economic conditions are expected to worsen under Trump. Structural difficulties like redistricting make flipping the House entirely uncertain, though taking the Senate is considered highly likely.
Trump Administration Foreign Policy Predictions
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(01:11:14)
  • Key Takeaway: The Trump administration is predicted to initiate a UAV campaign in the Sahel, possibly Nigeria, and utilize special forces in Mexico, while cabinet loyalty is expected to remain high.
  • Summary: The administration is expected to start a UAV campaign in the Sahel within the next 12 months, possibly Nigeria, and use special forces in Mexico. Cabinet turnover is predicted to be low because loyalty, not competency, is the primary factor for appointments in Trump’s second term. The primary vanity motivation for foreign action is Trump wanting to surpass Obama’s success in taking out Osama bin Laden by targeting Maduro.
Kidnapping of Nicolas Maduro
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(01:19:35)
  • Key Takeaway: The U.S. operation to kidnap Nicolas Maduro, justified by protecting DEA agents enforcing U.S. law in Venezuela, signals a dangerous assertion of American imperial power via the Monroe Doctrine.
  • Summary: The operation involved Delta Force operators conducting airstrikes in Caracas to seize Maduro and his wife, charging him with drug and gun crimes under U.S. law applied extraterritorially. The legal justification hinges on the Monroe Doctrine, asserting the Americas are U.S. purview, which is seen as more blatant than previous administrations’ justifications. Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, now acting president, is publicly condemning the kidnapping while seemingly negotiating with the U.S.
Venezuelan Oil Realities and Impact
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(01:40:45)
  • Key Takeaway: The strategic value of Venezuelan oil lies more in controlling OPEC power and geopolitical leverage than in its low-quality, difficult-to-refine crude.
  • Summary: Most Venezuelan crude is extremely low quality (‘sour’) and difficult to refine profitably, contradicting the simple narrative of seizing American assets. The real value is in controlling the oil deposits for balance sheet power and influencing OPEC’s ability to set global prices. The average Venezuelan citizen is not expected to benefit from this regime change, instead preparing for potential conflict and supply shortages.
Trump’s Win Condition and Global Harm
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(01:55:43)
  • Key Takeaway: Trump defines success by PR wins and personal benefit, regardless of actual financial outcomes or long-term global calamity.
  • Summary: Trump’s apparatus will frame actions as wins based on minimal individual American profit or favorable media coverage. The ultimate assessment of these actions by Americans depends on the long-term outcome, creating a dilemma where success emboldens further harm, but failure risks civil collapse in targeted nations like Venezuela. This pattern of high-stakes gambles is compared to early Nazi military successes.
Dictator Paranoia and Nuclear Proliferation
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(01:56:46)
  • Key Takeaway: Aggressive US actions like kidnapping Maduro trigger intense paranoia among global dictators, accelerating their pursuit of nuclear weapons as the only guaranteed security.
  • Summary: The paranoia of dictators is expected to spike, leading to increased torture and killings worldwide. Leaders will accurately recognize nuclear weapons as the sole defense against foreign intervention, mirroring the calculus Iran uses. This dynamic makes the world significantly more dangerous, echoing the long-term consequences of the Iraq War.
Domestic Implications for Migrants
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(02:30:31)
  • Key Takeaway: The DOJ’s extension in the Alien Enemies Act case suggests Venezuelan nationals in the US face heightened scrutiny and potential forced return to a paranoid regime.
  • Summary: Venezuelan nationals in the US are caught between a country they fled and a US that is actively bombing that country. The Venezuelan regime, paranoid about US spies due to leaks, will likely scrutinize returnees, potentially using a puppet government to accept deportees. This situation is largely unreported, leaving migrants terrified as they are stuck in the middle of geopolitical maneuvering.
CES Report: Smart Glasses Saturation
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(02:09:08)
  • Key Takeaway: CES 2025 shows smart glasses technology has reached a plateau of incremental improvement, with the main innovation being integration into specialized eyewear like ski or swim goggles.
  • Summary: The gadget portion of CES is characterized by lukewarm innovation, with smart glasses being the dominant, yet repetitive, product category. Most new glasses offer only minor resolution or size improvements over previous years, functioning largely the same. The primary evolution is applying the heads-up display technology to niche sports equipment rather than revolutionary consumer devices.
AI Hype vs. Industrial Reality
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(02:17:27)
  • Key Takeaway: The tech industry is consciously pivoting AI focus away from consumer hype toward tangible industrial applications like manufacturing and digital twins, admitting limited consumer utility.
  • Summary: The cultural victory lap for generative AI appears to be winding down, with less focus on vague hype and more on specific applications like AI-assisted manufacturing and digital twins. Industry leaders are emphasizing AI augmenting jobs rather than replacing them, signaling internal concern over low general user trust. This shift suggests an admission that there is little new to offer consumers annually.
Intuit’s Data Security Blind Spot
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(02:26:19)
  • Key Takeaway: Intuit’s $100 million partnership with OpenAI to embed AI into financial tools creates massive, unaddressed liability risks concerning prompt injection attacks exposing sensitive customer data.
  • Summary: Integrating AI models with detailed financial data grants them access vulnerable to prompt injection, where hidden commands can exfiltrate customer information. The CMO of Intuit could not identify who would be liable (Intuit or OpenAI) if such a breach occurred, demonstrating a profound carelessness regarding data safety among industry leaders. This lack of security consideration is emblematic of the industry’s broader negligence regarding personal data harm.
Agentic AI Lagging Expectations
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(02:34:01)
  • Key Takeaway: The promised ‘Year of Agentic AI’ has failed to materialize as agents consistently fail real-world tasks, leading to a delay in widespread adoption.
  • Summary: The promise of AI agents autonomously handling complex tasks like booking travel remains unfulfilled, with top models failing up to 70% of real-world office tasks. Adoption rates are significantly lower than predicted even a year prior, suggesting the technology has not yet reached maturity. The industry is now pushing the narrative that AI is a ‘co-worker’ to manage user expectations.
Marketing’s Goal: Feeding the Machine
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(02:41:43)
  • Key Takeaway: Tech executives view the internet’s primary function as feeding optimized content into LLMs, which then directly spoon-feed curated information to trusting consumers.
  • Summary: The core belief among tech leaders is that content creation must now target machines (LLMs) for scraping, effectively bypassing traditional consumer engagement. This strategy aims to create a direct pipeline from brand messaging to the consumer via AI recommendations, which are trusted implicitly. The ultimate project of AI wearables is seen as strengthening the machine by collecting more real-world data, not primarily improving the consumer experience.
AI Creativity: Custom Whiskey Bottles
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(02:45:39)
  • Key Takeaway: The pinnacle of AI-driven creativity showcased at CES involves leveraging AI to generate infinite variations of an existing artist’s style for personalized, on-site printed whiskey bottles.
  • Summary: A representative from Diageo described using AI to create unique bottle art in the style of a contracted artist for customers ordering whiskey. This example, cited during a panel about hypercharging human creativity, highlights the limited, often derivative, application of AI in consumer marketing. The success metric remains vague, lacking comparative data against traditional limited-edition releases.
AI Creativity and CES Panel
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(02:53:41)
  • Key Takeaway: AI democratizes authorship, allowing users to generate book trilogies quickly with subscription fees and VC funding.
  • Summary: Generating a trilogy of books can now be accomplished within six hours by paying a subscription service, democratizing creativity previously restricted by high barriers. One panelist, Eric Pace of Cox Media, argued that individuals must develop their own ethical rubrics for trusting AI sources because external regulation is unlikely. Dr. Martin Clancy found it more concerning for AI to recommend entertainment (music/movies) than to offer medical advice, a view Pace immediately countered by noting doctors frequently err.
Minneapolis ICE Shooting Analysis
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(03:01:25)
  • Key Takeaway: An ICE agent fatally shot a woman attempting to drive away during a routine anti-ICE action in Minneapolis, mirroring previous incidents where DHS falsely claimed the driver attempted to ram an agent.
  • Summary: Videos show an ICE agent shooting the driver immediately as the vehicle pulls forward to leave, with no verbal warning, despite the agent having time to step aside. This event is eerily similar to the September killing of Silvero Viegas-Gonzalez in Chicago, where the DHS also falsely accused the driver of domestic terrorism by ramming an agent. The shooting occurred less than 24 hours after the White House announced a surge of 2,000 federal agents to Minneapolis and less than a mile from where George Floyd was murdered.
Maduro Kidnapping and Oil Seizure
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(03:10:36)
  • Key Takeaway: Following the alleged kidnapping of President Maduro, ‘President’ Trump announced that interim Venezuelan authorities would transfer 30 to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., controlled by him.
  • Summary: The operation resulted in over 50 Venezuelan casualties, including Cuban advisors, and some damage to U.S. helicopters, though no U.S. personnel were killed. Trump’s announcement claims he will control the sale of this oil to benefit both nations, abandoning the historical pretense that U.S. military actions are not for oil. This action confirms speculation that the U.S. strategy involves allowing the regime to continue while manipulating it purely for financial benefit via oil access.
Venezuela Protest Report
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(03:17:27)
  • Key Takeaway: A New York City protest against the U.S. action in Venezuela was primarily organized and staffed by communist groups like the PSL, limiting broader public buy-in.
  • Summary: The protest, which included chants against U.S. action in Venezuela, Iran, and Palestine, was dominated by established leftist organizations setting up tables to sell newspapers and recruit members. The organized nature, led by groups like the Party for Socialism and Liberation (PSL), meant the event involved walking a route facilitated by the NYPD to Columbus Circle, which discourages genuine movement growth. The U.S. action is deemed an illegal act of war against a sovereign country, setting a dangerous precedent for blackbagging heads of state.
Venezuela Oil Blockade Update
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(03:27:13)
  • Key Takeaway: The U.S. oil blockade on Venezuela remains in effect, evidenced by the Coast Guard interdicting two oil tankers, one flagged as Russian, despite the difficulty of evading such massive vessels.
  • Summary: The U.S. government justifies seizing the tankers, which allegedly made ‘frantic efforts to avoid apprehension,’ by claiming they are ‘ghost ships’ involved in sanction evasion. The seizure of these tankers, which are massive and slow-moving, is itself considered an act of war by the hosts. China has issued diplomatic protests over the seizures, but no significant action has followed from major global powers.
Syria, Iran, and Israel Aid Issues
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(03:31:41)
  • Key Takeaway: Serious fighting erupted in Aleppo as Syrian Transitional Government forces shelled the Kurdish enclave of Sheikh Maksoud, while Israel threatened to withhold operating registration from major aid groups in Gaza.
  • Summary: The conflict in Aleppo escalated after an SDF drone strike, leading to STG drone attacks and incursions into the demilitarized Kurdish area, raising fears of ethnic cleansing by rebadged SNA units. In Iran, armed Kurdish groups like PAK have begun supporting nationwide protests, which intensified after armed forces attacked demonstrators in the Grand Bazaar in Tehran. Israel’s move to block MSF and Oxfam is viewed as a cynical attempt to starve the population, justified by the ’laughable conjecture’ that the groups are infiltrated by militants.