Stuff You Should Know

SYSK's 12 Days of Christmas… Toys: What Makes a Must-Have Christmas Toy?

December 12, 2025

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  • The phenomenon of the annual "must-have Christmas toy" was arguably established by the Cabbage Patch Kids in 1983, characterized by intense media buzz, scarcity, and resulting consumer violence, setting a precedent for subsequent holiday crazes. 
  • The primary drivers that elevate a toy to "must-have" status are a combination of advertising/media buzz and scarcity marketing, which exploits the consumer's fear of missing out (FOMO). 
  • Modern must-have toys often incorporate elements of surprise and unboxing culture, as seen with brands like LOL Surprise, while toy flippers who exploit scarcity are considered the worst offenders in the holiday shopping ecosystem. 

Segments

Episode Introduction and Context
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(00:00:00)
  • Key Takeaway: This episode of Stuff You Should Know is part of a special holiday playlist called the ‘12 Days of Christmas toys playlist.’
  • Summary: The episode kicks off the holiday programming by focusing on the annual frenzy surrounding must-have Christmas toys. The hosts aim to investigate the specific factors that elevate a toy to this highly sought-after status. The Cabbage Patch Kids of 1983 are cited as the origin point for this modern holiday toy phenomenon.
Cabbage Patch Kids Origin Debate
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(00:04:09)
  • Key Takeaway: Josh posits that Cabbage Patch Kids were the first true ‘must-have toy’ in the way the Summer Blockbuster was established by Jaws, while Chuck argues for earlier examples like the Star Wars Early Bird Certificate Package.
  • Summary: Chuck recounts his sister owning an early, handmade Little People doll from Helen, Georgia, predating the mass-market Cabbage Patch Kids. Josh argues that the Cabbage Patch Kid craze introduced a new level of consumer frenzy, marked by violence and scarcity, which previous hot toys like Mr. Potato Head (1952) or Robert the Robot (1954) did not generate.
Pre-Cabbage Patch Hot Toys
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(00:05:56)
  • Key Takeaway: Popular toys existed before 1983, such as the Star Wars Early Bird Certificate Package and the Atari Pac-Man cartridge, but they lacked the specific violent consumer frenzy associated with later must-have toys.
  • Summary: The Star Wars Early Bird Certificate Package, an empty box promising future figures, is cited as a great marketing gem. The Atari Pac-Man cartridge sold 7 million units in 1982, demonstrating high demand. Josh uses the lack of documented incidents involving broken legs or managers needing baseball bats to defend stock (as happened with Cabbage Patch Kids) to support his thesis.
Hallmarks of a Must-Have Toy
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(00:10:37)
  • Key Takeaway: Key characteristics defining a must-have toy include media buzz generated by direct outreach to reporters, insufficient supply to meet demand, and the resulting consumer violence.
  • Summary: Nintendo dominated the must-have toy market for three consecutive years (1988-1990) with the game console, the Game Boy, and the Super Nintendo console. The Tickle Me Elmo craze in 1996 involved significant violence, including a Walmart employee being trampled during restocking. Hatchimals were also a major must-have toy between 2016 and 2018.
Modern Toy Discovery Methods
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(00:18:01)
  • Key Takeaway: The traditional method of discovering desired toys via physical catalogs like the Sears Wishbook has been replaced by curated online lists from retailers and third-party evaluators.
  • Summary: The Wishbook Web site preserves historical toy catalogs up to 1996, illustrating how children previously identified wants. Today, parents rely on lists from sources like The Spruce or Toy Insider, though the objectivity of retailer lists (Amazon, Walmart) is questionable due to paid placement fees.
Retailer List Monetization
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(00:24:10)
  • Key Takeaway: Major retailers like Amazon and Walmart monetize their ‘hot toy’ lists by charging manufacturers substantial fees for consideration or placement.
  • Summary: Amazon reportedly generated $120 million in revenue from its hot toy list, charging up to $2 million for a toy’s nomination for consideration. Walmart charges $10,000 per month per toy to be included on their buyer’s picks list, suggesting these lists are heavily influenced by advertising revenue.
Marketing Tactics: Emotion and Scarcity
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(00:27:15)
  • Key Takeaway: Holiday marketing leverages positive emotions to encourage buying, but scarcity marketing—the fear of missing out due to limited supply—is the ultimate hypercharger for toy frenzy.
  • Summary: Advertisers target the goodwill associated with the holidays, often bombarding children with ads (one study counted 100 ads in a three-hour Saturday morning slot). Scarcity creates a fear-based motivation where parents may engage in unusual behavior, like camping out, to secure a limited item.
Scarcity Marketing Examples
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(00:31:01)
  • Key Takeaway: Scarcity marketing is used beyond toys, exemplified by the Disney Vault strategy and Pappy Van Winkle whiskey, creating a ‘have and have-not’ dynamic that heightens emotional value.
  • Summary: The Disney Vault strategy involved releasing movies for limited times, forcing consumers to buy immediately to complete their collections. Manufacturers like Spin Master (Hatchimals) have been accused of purposefully employing scarcity marketing, even when production capacity could meet demand. The perceived scarcity of a product, even if manufactured, drives intense consumer desire.
Condemnation of Toy Flippers
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(00:39:21)
  • Key Takeaway: Toy flippers, defined as those who professionally buy up must-have toys to resell them for profit, are deemed morally reprehensible for profiting off parental misfortune.
  • Summary: Flipping toys is equated to ticket scalping, especially when bots are used to automate the purchase process, bypassing security measures like CAPTCHAs. Flippers contribute directly to the scarcity that drives up prices, making it difficult for parents to secure gifts without paying exorbitant secondary market rates.
Current Year’s Hot Toys
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(00:48:26)
  • Key Takeaway: The Bloom Doll, which grows foam-like shapes when water is added, appeared on nearly every compiled list of must-have toys for the current season.
  • Summary: Other highly anticipated toys include the Toothless Dragon Hatchimal and the Barbie Dream Plane, which features accessories like a snack cart. Many current popular toys, like Bloom Dolls and LOL Surprise, capitalize on the YouTube trend of unboxing videos, where the surprise element is key to the appeal.