Odd Lots

Lots More on the Protests and Financial Crisis in Iran

January 16, 2026

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  • The current civil unrest in Iran feels qualitatively different from past protests due to widespread economic hardship affecting every household, contrasting with previous social freedom drivers. 
  • The Iranian economy is severely strained by sanctions, leading to a massive currency collapse (around 50% depreciation in seven months) and extreme difficulty for businesses to access hard currency for imports. 
  • Due to the near-total internet blackout, external observers cannot confirm basic market functions, such as whether the Iranian stock market is currently trading, highlighting the information vacuum. 

Segments

Iran Information Blackout
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(00:00:00)
  • Key Takeaway: The internet shutdown in Iran makes it impossible for outsiders to confirm basic market operations, such as stock trading status.
  • Summary: The civil unrest in Iran has caused a near-complete news blackout due to the government shutting down the internet. This lack of transparency prevents external observers from knowing if the Iranian stock market is currently trading. Communication is limited, sometimes relying on outgoing landline calls that are quickly interrupted.
Guest Introduction and Safety
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(00:06:26)
  • Key Takeaway: Amtelon Capital’s local team members in Tehran evacuated to smaller cities as protests intensified.
  • Summary: Maciej Wojtal, founder and CIO of Amtelon Capital, specializes in Iranian equities. He confirmed his local team members in Tehran left for their hometowns as the protests grew more intense. The last confirmed contact with them was a couple of days prior, at which point they were safe.
Protests: Different This Time
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(00:07:27)
  • Key Takeaway: The current protests are driven by economic difficulties, unlike previous rounds focused on social freedoms, making them more widespread and decisive.
  • Summary: This round of unrest feels different compared to past episodes, partly due to demographic shifts: 50 million Iranians are aged 15-49, educated, and frustrated by unachievable aspirations. While past protests focused on social freedoms (like after Marza Amini’s death), the current movement is fueled by economic collapse, touching every household.
Financial Crisis Drivers
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(00:10:48)
  • Key Takeaway: Sanctions have crippled Iran’s ability to earn hard currency, forcing the government to prioritize essential imports over general business needs.
  • Summary: Financial stress, including currency collapse and inflation, was the main cause of the current unrest, starting with protests in the Grand Bazaar. Sanctions have reduced exports, forcing Iran to sell oil primarily to China, which dictates unfavorable payment terms, often in Yuan. This limits hard currency available for necessary imports, starving other businesses.
Currency Collapse Details
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(00:12:42)
  • Key Takeaway: The Iranian Rial has lost approximately 97-98% of its value against the dollar over the last decade, with nearly 50% lost in the last seven months.
  • Summary: The exchange rate is estimated to be around 1.5 million Iranian Rials per one US dollar. This represents a massive depreciation over the last decade and a sharp decline since the war with Israel last year. The currency has been relatively stable recently, possibly due to central bank manipulation amid low liquidity.
Bank Collapse and Corruption
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(00:13:14)
  • Key Takeaway: A major bank collapse required a $5 billion government bailout, exposing massive corruption where an entrepreneur used a self-founded bank to fund his own ventures.
  • Summary: A large Iranian bank was nationalized after a collapse that impacted the national budget, necessitating subsidy reductions to cover the bailout. The failure stemmed from a well-connected entrepreneur who set up a bank, attracted deposits with high interest, and then loaned the majority of those funds to his own construction companies, including one building a luxury mall twice the size of the Pentagon.
Socio-Economic Factions
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(00:21:37)
  • Key Takeaway: Iranian society is split between young people seeking modern opportunities, liberal adults in major cities, and a religious minority supporting the Islamic Republic.
  • Summary: Roughly 10% to 30% of society is highly religious and supports the government as a religious state, while the rest desire a modern, open state. Life in Tehran is notably more liberal and open than in other cities, with many young people demanding rapid change to achieve their aspirations. Despite being an Islamic Republic, Iran remains tolerant of recognized minority religions like Judaism and Christianity.
Future Outlook and Market Pricing
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(00:24:02)
  • Key Takeaway: The Iranian market is currently priced for war, having experienced a massive sell-off following the previous conflict, and future changes are likely but unpredictable.
  • Summary: Market sentiment has not recovered since the previous war, meaning current valuations are heavily discounted, trading near all-time lows (below three times net earnings). While the government’s recent statement about halting executions might ease immediate tensions, the underlying financial situation remains tough. Changes are likely over months, moving in a direction of reform, though the exact scenario remains unpredictable.