Odd Lots

What Really Happens at a Fed Research Conference

January 5, 2026

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  • Federal Reserve research conferences, like the Boston Fed's 69th Annual Flagship Economic Conference, serve as the intellectual groundwork where academic research on timely issues like tariffs, supply chains, and inflation first collides with real-world data and shapes future policy debates. 
  • The academic process at these conferences involves rigorous peer scrutiny, where presenting economists risk public critique from discussants and attendees, though there is a growing awareness within the profession to maintain a constructive and civilized seminar climate. 
  • Economists face a tension between producing research that is highly specialized for prestigious academic journal publication and conducting broader, interdisciplinary work that is directly relevant and useful for informing complex policy decisions. 

Segments

Economist Presentation Anxiety
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(00:01:13)
  • Key Takeaway: The primary nightmare scenario for an economist presenting research at a Fed conference is appearing dishonest by concealing a known data flaw, as the profession is fundamentally built on trust.
  • Summary: Omar Barbiero, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, detailed the pressure of presenting preliminary work to peers and superiors. He emphasized that losing professional trust due to dishonesty about methodological flaws is the worst possible outcome. His paper focused on U.S. firms’ exposure to import tariffs, comparing 2018 and 2025 episodes.
Boston Fed Conference Theme
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(00:04:18)
  • Key Takeaway: The 69th annual Boston Fed research conference theme for 2025 is ‘The U.S. economy in a changing global landscape,’ focusing on tariffs, geopolitical tensions, industrial policy, and AI.
  • Summary: The conference format involves assigned discussants who publicly critique papers presented to an audience of peers, academics, and policymakers. Egon Sikrychek, Director of Research at the Boston Fed, noted that the current era lacks established theoretical frameworks to understand monumental changes like the reversal of globalization.
Research Selection Process
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(00:08:19)
  • Key Takeaway: Conference topics are chosen by research leadership in consultation with the Fed President to ensure timeliness and relevance to policymakers, followed by inviting contributors to write papers.
  • Summary: The process involves identifying a timely topic, conferring with leadership like President Susan Collins, and then soliciting papers, though the final content may sometimes diverge slightly from the initial blurb. Discussants are then tasked with contextualizing the paper within the general theme and providing constructive critique.
Network Exposure Research
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(00:11:46)
  • Key Takeaway: Shabnam Kalemli-Oskin’s research suggests the U.S. economy is significantly more exposed to global risks than conventional views suggest when accounting for full global trade, production, and financial networks.
  • Summary: The conventional macro view treats the U.S. as relatively closed due to low trade shares, but network analysis reveals deep integration through supply chains, financing, and production linkages. This comprehensive network view implies that the U.S. is highly vulnerable to global shocks, contrary to assumptions based on dollar dominance.
Supply Chain Uncertainty Impact
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(00:19:05)
  • Key Takeaway: Supply chain disruptions, even minor ones like the Suez Canal blockage, can cause persistent, amplified inflationary effects by changing the state of the economy in which firms make pricing decisions.
  • Summary: Tommaso Monticelli’s paper argues that the volatility and uncertainty within supply chains, not just the size of the shock, significantly impact inflation. Central banks should be far more reactive to energy price shocks when supply chain disruption is high, as these shocks become amplified and persistent under those conditions.
Discussant Role and Critique
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(00:24:07)
  • Key Takeaway: A good discussant reframes the paper, pulls out key takeaways, and provides constructive comments, balancing critical light with kindness toward the authors.
  • Summary: Discussants spend significant research time preparing and are not paid for their service, motivated instead by contributing to policy and professional engagement. Ludwig Straub noted that while some discussants are overly critical, he aims for a balance, offering constructive suggestions for improvement.
Policy vs. Journal Tension
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(00:32:32)
  • Key Takeaway: A serious tension exists in academia where the goal of writing policy-useful research often conflicts with the academic publishing system’s preference for narrow, highly specialized research siloed by sub-field.
  • Summary: Economists often want to inform policy accurately, but academic publishing values specialized work, leading to silos where interdisciplinary problem-solving is undervalued. Shabnam Kalemli-Oskin expressed hope that current times will encourage more collaboration across sub-fields to tackle linked policy problems.
Policymaker Takeaways
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(00:37:06)
  • Key Takeaway: Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted that research presented suggests policymakers may have historically underestimated the potential for large, persistent effects from shocks due to complex network linkages in trade, finance, and production.
  • Summary: Collins highlighted that understanding these complex connections is crucial, as increased uncertainty can make shocks have a bigger impact than traditional models predict. She confirmed that she shares informative findings with colleagues like Tom Barkin, distilling key insights for policy relevance.